中国医疗核磁共振设备资源化评估

Resource recycling potential of magnetic resonance imaging in China

随着我国医疗器械行业市场不断扩大,医疗设备更新换代,导致医疗电子设备报废量逐年增加,但对其报废量及资源回收潜力尚不清晰。因此,以核磁共振成像(magnetic resonance imaging,MRI)设备为例,通过Logistic模型、灰色预测模型、Weibull分布+市场供给A模型对MRI设备的百万人均保有量、销售量和报废量进行预测,并对报废的MRI设备进行可资源化评估。据预测,我国MRI销售量将从2023年的2251台增长到2032年的5160台,复合年均增长率达8.6%,MRI百万人均保有量将达到32台。2023—2033年,我国MRI设备的年报废量将从1476台增长至3240台,累计报废总量可达287200 t。其中,钕铁硼磁铁累计可回收量为9606 t,铌钛合金累计可回收量为125700 t;铝、铁、线路板及导线、玻璃纤维增强环氧树脂、铜、低碳钢以及不锈钢的可回收量依次递减,分别为40400、36200、29800、17700、9700、9500以及9100 t。研究结果可为报废医疗电子设备回收政策的制定及其产业发展提供参考。

With the expansion of Chinese medical device industry,scrapped medical electronic devices increase year by year.However,its annual scrap volume is unclear,and research on its resource value is also limited.Therefore,taking magnetic resonance imaging(MRI)equipment as an example,the Logistic model,grey prediction model,Weibull distribution+market supply A model were used to predict its per million per capita ownership,sales and scrap volume.Meanwhile,the resource availability of the scrapped MRI equipment was assessed.The results showed that by 2032,MRI equipment sales would grow from 2251 units to 5160units from 2023 to 2032,with a compound annual growth rate of 8.6%.By 2032,per million per capita ownership of MRI in China would be 32 units.In 2023—2033,the annual scrapped volume of MRI equipment in China would increase from 1476 to 3240 units,and the cumulative total scrapped volume could reach 287200 t.The cumulative recoverable amount of NdFeB magnetic would be 9606 t,which was 125700 t for niobium titanium.MRI recyclable aluminum,iron,circuit boards and wires,glass fiber reinforced epoxy resin,copper,low carbon steel,stainless steel were in a descending order,respectively 40400,36200,29800,17700,9700,9500 and 9100 t.The results of this study can provide a guidance for the recycling policies on end-oflife medical electronic equipment and its industrial development.