新质生产力对碳减排的影响研究

Study on Influence of New Quality Productivity on Carbon Emission Reduction

本文利用2012—2022年我国省际面板数据考察新质生产力发展对碳排放强度的影响。研究发现:新质生产力通过提升全要素生产率和改善能源消费结构显著降低了碳排放强度;新质生产力的碳减排效应在中西部地区和碳排放强度较高的地区更加明显;在构成新质生产力的三大维度中,绿色生产力对碳排放强度的负向影响最大,科技生产力的影响次之,创新生产力对碳排放强度的影响不明显。产业集聚对新质生产力与碳排放之间的关系存在非线性调节作用:当产业集聚水平低于门槛值时,新质生产力的碳减排效应更大;当产业集聚水平高于门槛值时,新质生产力的碳减排效应被削弱。因此,要加大对新质生产力相关领域投入力度,加强绿色技术创新应用和完善绿色制度激励,强化跨区域产业合作和政策协同,合力推动新质生产力发展和整体碳减排。

In this paper,the influence of the development of new quality productivity on carbon emission intensity is investigated by using the inter-provincial panel data from 2012 to 2022.It is found that new quality productivity significantly reduce carbon emission intensity by improving total factor productivity and energy consumption structure.The carbon reduction effect of new quality productivity is more obvious in the central and western regions and regions with higher carbon emission intensity.Among the three dimensions that constitute the new quality productivity,green productivity has the largest negative impact on carbon emission intensity,followed by scientific and technological productivity,and innovative productivity has an insignificant impact on carbon emission intensity.Moreover,industrial agglomeration has a non-linear moderating effect on the relationship between new quality productivity and carbon emissions:when the level of industrial agglomeration is lower than the threshold value,the carbon emission reduction effect of new quality productivity is greater;when the level of industrial agglomeration is higher than the threshold value,the carbon emission reduction effect of new quality productivity is weakened.Therefore,it is necessary to increase the investment in the fields related to new quality productivity,strengthen the application of green technology innovation and improve the incentive of green system,strengthen cross-regional industrial cooperation and policy coordination,and jointly promote the development of new quality productivity and overall carbon emission reduction.