人力资本对经济增长的影响路径研究——基于VAR模型

Study on the influence path of human capital on economic growth——Based on the VAR model

人力资本对经济增长的研究一直是各国学者的研究热点,文章以安徽省2001—2022年的经济数据为研究对象,采用VAR模型对其影响机制进行深入分析。研究发现,固定资产投资和人力资本存量对经济增长存在短期滞后效应,尤其是在社会基础设施不健全的情况下,这一影响更加显著。这些影响在中后期逐渐达到高峰,并且在之后趋于稳定。尽管在初期经济增长缓慢,但随着发展的深入,固定资产投资的增加改善了人才培养环境,从而提升了人力资本存量,对经济发展起到了显著的推动作用。

The research of human capital on economic growth has always been a research hotspot for scholars from various countries.This paper takes the economic data of Anhui Province from 2001 to 2022 as the research object,and uses the VAR model to conduct an in-depth analysis of its impact mechanism.The study found that fixed asset investment and human capital stock have a short-term lag effect on economic growth,especially in the case of unsound social infrastructure,this impact is more significant.These effects gradually peak in the middle and late stages and stabilized thereafter.Although the economic growth was slow in the early stage,the increase in fixed asset investment improved the talent training ring with the deepening of development environment,thus increasing the stock of human capital,has played a significant role in promoting the economic development.