后新冠疫情时代北京蔬菜市场运行特点分析及展望

Analysis and Prospect of the Operation Characteristics of Beijing Vegetable Market in the Post COVID-19 Era

基于行业监测数据,以蔬菜及主要品类的市场价格、上市量、供应地等主要指标,将2017—2023年分为疫情前时期(2017—2019年)、疫情时期(2020—2022年)、后疫情时期(2023年)3个阶段,通过对比主要指标变化,对后疫情时期北京蔬菜市场运行特点进行了研究总结,全面分析新冠疫情结束以后以北京为代表的销地型城市蔬菜等主要农产品市场运行的新特点,以期为蔬菜生产、流通、城市农产品稳产保供策略调整提供参考依据。结果表明:后疫情时期蔬菜市场最显著特征之一是价格回落,蔬菜价格在疫情时期波动最为剧烈,后疫情时期次之;后疫情时期北京批发市场蔬菜上市量处于恢复之中,但仍没有恢复到疫情时期的平均水平,也远低于疫情前水平,北京市蔬菜供应主要集中于13个省市,从3个时期来看,呈进一步集中趋势;主要蔬菜品类价格波动幅度加剧,尤以叶类蔬菜最为显著,后疫情时期叶类和茄果类蔬菜价格回落,耐储类蔬菜价格持续上升和高位运行。展望未来,中短期来看,价格回落将是北京蔬菜市场运行的主基调,北京市蔬菜供应流通渠道趋于多元化,但批发市场仍是最主要的渠道,占北京市场蔬菜消费需求的比例可能将维持在70%左右。

Based on industry monitoring data,this study divided the period from 2017 to 2023 into three stages,pre pandemic period(2017—2019),pandemic period(2020—2022),and post pandemic period(2023),using main indicators such as market prices,market volumes,and supply locations of vegetables and their main categories.By comparing the changes in the main indicators,this study summarized the operational characteristics of the Beijing vegetable market in the post pandemic period,in order to comprehensively analyze the new characteristics of the market operation of major agricultural products such as land selling urban vegetables represented by Beijing after the end of the COVID-19,and provide reference for the adjustment of vegetable production,circulation,and urban agricultural products′stable production and supply strategy.The results showed that one of the most significant characteristics of the vegetable market during the post epidemic period was the price decline,with vegetable prices experiencing the most severe price fluctuations during the epidemic period,followed by the post epidemic period.During the post epidemic period,the vegetable market in Beijing′s wholesale market was recovering,but it had not yet returned to the average level of the epidemic period and was far lower than the pre epidemic level.The vegetable supply in Beijing was mainly concentrated in 13 provinces and cities,and from three periods,it showed a further concentration trend.The price fluctuations of major vegetable categories had intensified,with leaf vegetables being the most significant.During the post epidemic period,the prices of leaf vegetables and eggplant fruits had fallen,while the prices of durable storage vegetables had continued to rise and remain high.Looking ahead to the future,in the medium to short term,price decline will be the main tone for the operation of the Beijing vegetable market.The supply and distribution channels of vegetables in Beijing are becoming more diversified,but the wholesale market is still the most important channel,accounting for about 70%of the vegetable consumption demand in the Beijing market.