海南省自然灾害灾情损失评估指标体系构建与应用

Construction and application of the evaluation indicators for natural disaster losses in Hainan Province

海南省自然灾害多发、频发,自然灾害风险日益突出。为了提升海南省自然灾害损失评估能力,科学核定灾害损失程度,引入灾情综合指数,基于层次分析法构建了灾害损失评估模型,量化分析灾情综合指数与综合灾害损失之间规律。结果表明:灾害损失评估模型通过一致性检验,说明各评估因子在综合灾害损失中的占比较符合实际情况;海南省综合灾害损失以直接经济损失和严重损坏房屋数为主导,累计占比达54%;灾情综合指数极值均与各地区历年灾害损失极值相对应;海南省灾情综合指数呈总体逐年变小趋势。研究可为防灾减灾救灾管理部门评估灾害损失程度及灾后巨灾保险赔付提供依据。

Hainan Province is prone to frequent natural disasters,and the risk of natural disasters is becoming increasingly prominent.In order to enhance the assessment capacity of natural disaster losses in Hainan Province,and scientifically determine the degree of disaster losses,a comprehensive disaster index is introduced,a disaster loss assessment model is developed based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process to quantitatively analyze the relationship between the comprehensive disaster index and comprehensive disaster losses.The results show that the disaster loss assessment model has passed the consistency test,indicating that the proportion of each evaluation factor in the comprehensive disaster loss is relatively consistent with the actual situation.The comprehensive disaster losses in Hainan Province are mainly direct economic losses and the number of severely damaged houses,accounting for a cumulative proportion of 54%.The extreme values of the comprehensive disaster index correspond to the extreme values of disaster losses in various regions over the years.The comprehensive index of disaster situation in Hainan Province is showing an overall decreasing trend year by year.It can provide a basis for disaster prevention,reduction,and relief management departments to evaluate the degree of disaster losses and post disaster insurance payment.