全球生产智能化对中国贸易与福利的影响

Impact of Global Production Automation on China’s Trade and Welfare

本文构建机器人参与生产的多部门李嘉图模型,测算国家层面的机器人应用程度指标,量化分析2012-2019年全球生产智能化进程对中国贸易与福利水平的影响。研究发现:中国机器人为生产环节赋能的能力还需要进一步加强,中国当下具有良好的生产智能化发展势头;全球生产智能化使中国工人的人均福利水平有所提升,但由机器人生产率效应提供的贡献较少,主要来源于就业替代效应;发达国家机器人使用引发传统产业回流,对中国产生不利冲击,而其他新兴市场国家的机器人使用则进一步强化与中国的产业分工合作。本文的研究为中国“稳外贸”与产业智能化升级提供了重要参考。

This paper constructs a multi-sectoral Ricardian model that incorporates robot production and calculates a nationwide robot application index in order to quantify the impact of global industrial automation between 2012 and 2019 on China’s trade and welfare.The results of the study reveal the following:(i)China’s ability to empower production processes with robots needs to be further addressed,although China is already highly developed in industrial automation;(ii)global industrial automation has slightly increased the per capita welfare level of Chinese employees,but its contribution to productivity turns out to be minimal and the primary benefit comes from employment substitution effects;and(iii)the use of robots in developed countries has led to the reshoring of traditional industries,negatively affecting China.However,its use in emerging countries has further strengthened the industrial division and cooperation with China.This study provides important references for China to stabilize foreign trade and upgrade industrial automation.