秩序愿景再均衡与亚太经济一体化的制度变迁

Re-Equilibrium of International Order Visions and Institutional Change in Asia-Pacific Economic Integration

亚太地区经济一体化进程经历了从制度稀缺性到制度复杂性的转变。在既有制度无法推动国际贸易规则谈判或地区自贸区建设的情况下,亚太地区逐渐产生了承载不同秩序愿景的竞争性贸易安排。这种现象反映出各国对亚太经济一体化制度规则的愿景差异。在国际政治经济领域,国际社会发展的不均衡塑造了两种不同的国际秩序愿景:一种是强调制度包容性与灵活性的发展型愿景,另一种是强调制度先进性与约束性的规则型愿景。制度均衡理论认为,作为一种观念的亚太经济制度,其制度变迁是国家间秩序愿景从非均衡到再均衡的过程。秩序愿景的协调会驱动制度生成或升级,秩序愿景的疏离则会造成旧制度的僵化与新制度构想的产生。制度反馈和大国博弈是秩序愿景再均衡导致国际制度变迁这一因果机制解释中的两个主要变量。秩序愿景差异通过制度反馈促成了秉持不同制度变迁方案的国家集团形成,通过大国博弈影响秩序愿景的协调方式,进而影响制度变迁的形式。

The process of economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region has undergone a transition from institutional scarcity to institutional complexity.In the context of the failure to reach an agreement on trade rules negotiations,the Asia-Pacific region has gradually produced competitive trade arrangements bearing different visions of international order.This phenomenon reflects states'different visions of institutional rules.In the field of international political economy,the uneven development of the international society has shaped two visions of international order:the development-based vision that emphasizes the inclusiveness and flexibility of institutions,and the rule-based vision that emphasizes the progressiveness and restrictiveness of institutions.According to the institutional equilibrium theory,the international institution is a shared belief,and the institutional change of Asia-Pacific economic integration is a process from disequilibrium to re-equilibrium of visions.The coordination of different visions drives the creation or upgrading of institutions;the failure to coordinate different visions will lead to the rigidity of existing institutions and the emergence of new institutional beliefs.The institutional feedback and the struggle among great powers have affected the coordination of visions.Institutional feedback influences the initial stages of institutional change by altering the expectations of visions,while the struggle among great powers shapes the final stages of institutional change by influencing the coordination of different visions.The generation and change of institutions or institutional frameworks such as APEC,TPP/CPTPP,and RCEP have tested the above hypotheses.