在智能化和城镇化中走向共同富裕

Toward Common Prosperity in Intelligent Manufacturing and Urbanization

党中央多次强调发展智能制造和推进新型城镇化战略的重要性。在此过程中,如何定量评估两者对收入差距的影响,并制定切实可行的收入分配政策以兼顾效率和公平是一个亟需解决的关键问题。本文构建了一个包含户籍、异质性劳动力、内生自动化技术选择的量化空间一般均衡模型,对上述问题进行了探究,并构建区分城市与农村的模型进行补充分析。研究发现,户籍放松虽提高了低技能劳动要素的流动性,释放了经济活力,使得全国真实GDP增长2.04%、福利水平提高2.05%,但也伴随着技能溢价提高8.64%、收入差距提高5.39%的“副作用”产生。在智能制造背景下,户籍放松对收入差距的影响会降低51.39%。因此,在智能化和城镇化推进过程中,不必单纯依靠对高技能劳动者的累进收入所得税来解决收入不平等问题,而是可以通过对机器人征税来缓解对劳动者征税所引起的社会压力。

To further advance intelligent manufacturing and accelerate the development of new productive forces,the Communist Party of China and the government have repeatedly emphasized leveraging intelligent manufacturing as a growth engine.Moreover,China's household registration reform remains incomplete,and the state is committed to deepening the new urbanization strategy centered on human development.In this context,a critical issue that urgently needs to be addressed is how to quantitatively assess the impact of intelligent manufacturing and urbanization on income inequality and develop practical income distribution policies that balance efficiency and equity.No study has comprehensively addressed this issue.This study constructs a quantitative spatial general equilibrium model that incorporates household registration,endogenous automation technology choices,and heterogeneous labor to explore this topic.The model is further extended to differentiate between agricultural and urban sectors for supplementary analysis.The study finds that(1)although the relaxation of household registration has increased the mobility of low-skilled labor factors and unleashed economic vitality,resulting in a 2.04%increase in the national real GDP and a 2.05%increase in the level of welfare,it is also accompanied by an 8.64%increase in skill premium and a 5.39%increase in the income gap as a side effect.(2)In the context of intelligent manufacturing,the impact of household registration relaxation on income disparity will reduce by 51.39%.Therefore,in the process of smart manufacturing and urbanization,we do not have to rely solely on progressive income tax on high-skilled workers to solve the problem of income inequality.Instead,we can tax robots to alleviate the social pressure caused by taxing workers.These results have significant policy implications:the issue of unbalanced and inadequate development in China remains prominent,and income distribution gaps are substantial.Existing studies generally suggest that household registration relaxation reduces income disparity and promotes equality on a per capita basis when labor heterogeneity is not considered(Lu Ming,2021).In reality,the current household registration system mainly restricts the mobility of low-skilled labor.This study finds that considering labor heterogeneity,household registration relaxation enhances the mobility of low-skilled labor,unleashes economic vitality,and improves efficiency.However,it also brings about the side effects of increased skill premiums and widened income disparity.How can we achieve equality in urbanization?The expansion of income disparity can be adjusted through policies such as taxation,where the extent of taxation depends on the degree of income disparity.Therefore,quantitatively analyzing the impact of household registration relaxation on income disparity and understanding the channels through which it affects income disparity is crucial.In the context of intelligent manufacturing,relaxing the household registration system no longer merely influences income disparity through the spatial reallocation of high-skilled and low-skilled labor;robots are also a significant factor.Robots have substituted low-skilled labor,increased skill premiums,and alleviated the shortage of low-skilled labor in economically developed regions prior to the relaxation of household registration.Thus,the impact of household registration relaxation on income disparity is somewhat diminished compared with a traditional industrial economy,with the extent of the increase in income disparity reducing by 51.39%.Under a traditional industrial economy,progressive income taxes on highskilled workers are often used to address income inequality,such as skill premiums,but this can lead to new social pressures.In the context of intelligent manufacturing,robots,alongside labor,participate in production and distribution.Robots replace low-skilled labor,increase skill premiums,and reduce the overall demand for low-skilled labor in the market,further widening income disparities.China's household registration system exacerbates the adoption of robots.Therefore,how can we achieve the coexistence of efficiency and equity to move toward equality in the process of intelligent manufacturing and urbanization?During the advancement of intelligent manufacturing and urbanization,it is not necessary to solely rely on progressive income taxes on high-skilled workers to address income inequality.Instead,taxing robots can alleviate the social pressures caused by taxing labor.