进口国突发性社会安全事件对中国农产品出口贸易的影响

The Impact of Sudden Social Security Incidents in Importing Countries on China's Agricultural Export Trade

本文基于2002-2021年中国对丝绸之路经济带沿线56国的农产品出口贸易数据,定量分析进口国突发性社会安全事件对中国农产品出口贸易的影响。研究发现:进口国突发性社会安全事件的发生抑制了中国农产品出口贸易,这一结果在经过调整样本及引入工具变量等检验后仍然稳健,以私人及其财产为目标的突发性社会安全事件对中国农产品出口贸易的抑制作用更明显。进口国发生突发性社会安全事件后,中国农产品出口贸易会转向与该国制度距离较近的国家。进口国政治全球化指数、进口国反恐行动水平、进口国加入“一带一路”倡议情况均缓解了突发性社会安全事件对中国农产品出口贸易的负向影响。本文认为,中国的农产品出口企业应做好前期突发性社会安全事件预测与评估、提升危机处理能力,政府相关部门应客观识别突发性社会安全事件的异质性影响,国家层面应加强反恐行动国际协作,以缓解进口国突发性社会安全事件对中国农产品出口贸易的消极影响。

Based on the data of China's agricultural export trade with 56 countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt from 2002 to 2021,this paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of sudden social security incidents in importing countries on China's agricultural export trade.The results show that the occurrence of sudden social security incidents of importing countries inhibit China's agricultural export trade,which remains robust after adjusting the sample and introducing instrumental variables,and that the inhibitory effect on China's agricultural export trade is more pronounced for sudden social security incidents targeting private individuals and their property.After the outbreak of sudden social security incidents in the importing country,China's agricultural export trade will be shifted to countries with a close institutional distance.The political globalization index,the level of anti-terrorism actions of importing countries,and the situation ofjoining of the"Belt and Road"initiative by the importing countries all alleviate the negative impact of sudden social security incidents on China's agricultural export trade.This paper argues that China's agricultural export enterprises should do a good job in predicting and evaluating sudden social security incidents in the early stage and improve their crisis management capabilities,relevant govermment departments should objectively identify the heterogeneous impact of sudden social security incidents,and international coordination on anti-terrorism actions should be strengthened at the national level,so as to alleviate the negative impact of sudden social security incidents on China's agricultural export trade.