基于灰色关联度的林业产业结构动态关联分析——以内蒙古自治区为例

Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Forestry Industrial Structure Based on Grey Correlation Degree——Take Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as an Example

依据2016—2020年统计数据,运用灰色关联分析法,对内蒙古自治区林业产业总值与林业三次产业产值之间的关联度进行定量分析,明确产业发展形势。结果表明:内蒙古林业产业以传统的第一产业为主导,对总产值贡献最大,第一产业以种植、采集等传统产业为主;第二产业关联度最弱,以木材和经济林果加工等为主,发展水平不高且发展空间相对有限;第三产业对林业产业总体拉动作用小于第一产业,但近年呈快速上升趋势,有望成为林业产业总产值增长关键发力点。基于此,从发展优势产业、推动产业融合、强化科技创新等方面为选择全区林业产业结构发展路径提出相应建议。

Based on the statistical data from 2016 to 2020,using the gray correlation analysis method,the correlation between the total value of forestry industry and the output value of the three forestry industries in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region was first quantitatively analyzedto clarify the industrial development situation.The results showed that the forestry industry in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region was characterized by the following characteristics The results showed that the forestry industry in Inner Mongolia is dominated by the traditional primary industry,which contributes the most to the total output value,and the primary industry is dominated by traditional industries such as planting and collecting;The secondary industry has the weakest correlation and is dominated by timber and economic forest fruit processing,etc.,with a low level of development and relatively limited development space;the tertiary industry has a smaller pulling effect on the forestry industry than the primary industry in general,but has shown a rapid upward trend in recent years and is expected to become a key driving point for the growth of the total output value of the forestry industry.Based on this,the optimization of forestry industry structure in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in terms of developing advantageous industries was suggested,which can promot industrial integration and strengthen scientific and technological innovation.