内陆开放型经济—出境交通复合系统的脆弱性及影响机理

Vulnerability and Influencing Mechanism of Open Economy-Outbound Traffic Composite System in Chinese Mainland

在依托国际互联互通交通基础设施扩大内陆开放的大背景下,文章从敏感性和应对性2个维度构建开放型经济—出境交通复合系统脆弱性评价指标体系,采用集对分析法测算脆弱性,并运用泰尔指数、空间马尔科夫链及障碍度模型分析其空间差异特征、空间溢出效应及障碍因子。结果表明:①我国内陆地区开放型经济—出境交通复合系统脆弱性呈以中部地区为核心向边疆地区逐渐增大的圈层结构。低脆弱城市呈以城市群为中心的“群”状分布特征;中心城市脆弱性最低,沿边口岸城市脆弱性最高;且随时间演化系统脆弱性逐年降低。②系统脆弱性的空间差异逐年上升,省内差异贡献大于省际差异,西藏、云南、黑龙江、四川等是差异主要来源地。③脆弱性类型趋向于保持不变,低脆弱性城市具有显著的正向空间溢出效应。④外贸和外资依存度、出境交通最短旅行时间、货运周转量、进出口贸易总额等是脆弱性降低的主要障碍因子。

Under the background of expanding opening-up of Chinese mainland through international interconnection and transportation infrastructure,this paper constructs the vulnerability evaluation index system of open economy-outbound transportation system from the two dimensions of sensitivity and responsiveness,uses set pair analysis method to measure its vulnerability,and uses Theil index,spatial Markov chain and obstacle degree model to analyze its spatial difference characteristics,spillover effect and obstacle factors.The results show that:1)The vulnerability of the coupling system between the open economy and outbound traffic in Chinese mainland shows a circle structure with the central region as the core and gradually increasing along the border areas.The low-vulnerable cities show the characteristics of"cluster"distribution centered on urban agglomerations.The vulnerability of the central cities is the lowest,and the vulnerability of the border port cities is the highest.The vulnerability of the system decreases year by year.2)The spatial difference of system vulnerability is increasing year by year,and the contribution of intra-provincial difference is greater than that of inter-provincial difference.3)The type of vulnerability tends to remain the same,and the low-vulnerability cities have a significant positive spatial spillover effect.4)Dependence on foreign trade and foreign capital,minimum travel time of outbound transportation,freight turnover,total import and export trade are the main obstacles to reduce vulnerability.The research conclusions can provide decision-making reference for Chinese mainland to achieve high-quality and sustainable development of open economy by relying on the opening channel.