普惠金融影响地方政府债务的作用机制及其时空效应

Spatiotemporal Effects and Mechanisms of Inclusive Finance on Local Debt in China

文章基于我国2011—2021年地级及以上市域面板数据,运用固定效应模型、分位数估计、空间滞后模型等方法,探讨了普惠金融影响地方政府债务规模的时空效应与作用机制,并对其稳定性进行了检验。结果表明:①从时序效应来看,发展普惠金融具有降低地方政府债务规模的效应,这种“降债”效应呈现出随着地方政府债务规模增加而减弱的特点,同时表现出人口流出地/流入地、城市区位、经济发展水平、城市商业水平方面的异质性;②从空间效应来看,发展普惠金融既产生了降低本地政府债务规模的直接效应,还产生了间接降低相邻地区政府债务规模的溢出效应,且直接效应大于间接效应;③机制分析发现,发展普惠金融通过促进地区产业结构升级、提升产业结构合理化、缩小地方财政缺口可以降低地方政府债务规模。未来,应强化金融有效服务实体经济发展的体制机制建设,发挥普惠金融有效减低地方政府债务规模的机制作用,共同促进经济高质量发展。

Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities and above in China from 2011 to 2021,this study employs fixed effects models,quantile regression,and spatial lag models to analyze,examining the spatiotemporal effects and mechanisms of inclusive finance on the scale of local government debt.The findings are as follows:1)In terms of temporal effect,the development of inclusive finance has the effect of reducing the scale of local government debt.This debt-reduction effect diminishes as the scale of local debt increases and exhibits heterogeneity based on factors such as population migration,urban location,economic development level,and urban commercial level.2)In terms of spatial effect,the development of inclusive finance not only directly reduces the scale of local government debt,but also indirectly reduces the scale of government debt in neighboring regions through spillover effects,and the direct effect is more pronounced than the indirect effect.3)The development of inclusive finance reduces local government debt by promoting industrial structure upgrades,enhancing the rationalization of industrial structures,and narrowing local fiscal gaps.It should focus on strengthening the institutional mechanisms that enable finance to effectively serve the real economy,leveraging the role of inclusive finance in reducing local government debt scales and jointly fostering highquality economic development.