基于DCF-BS模型的可衍生电影版权投资价值评估——以英皇影业投资《古董局中局》为例

Valuation of Derivative Film Copyright Investment Based on DCF-BS Model——Taking Emperor Pictures'Investment in'Antiques Bureau Mid Game'as an Example

针对可衍生电影版权投资收益的不确定性,本文运用期权定价方法给出衍生品追加投资选择权价值评估的BS模型,进而给出可衍生电影版权投资价值评估的DCF-BS模型。将模型应用于英皇影业对《古董局中局》的投资价值评估案例,以检验模型有效性。结果表明:DCF-BS模型相对单纯的DCF模型不仅适用于可衍生电影版权价值评估,而且估值结果并不是传统的DCF模型估值与BS模型估值的简单相加,而是两种模型相互融合的结果,即估值结果对票房收益的高度不确定性表现出较低的敏感性,对促进可衍生电影的市场化投资具有重要意义。

In response to the uncertainty of investment returns on derivative film copyrights,this article uses option pricing methods to provide a BS model for evaluating the value of derivative additional investment options,and then presents a DCF-BS model for evaluating the value of derivative film copyright investments.Apply the model to the investment value evaluation case of Emperor Pictures'“Antique Bureau”to test the effectiveness of the model.The results indicate that the DCF-BS model,which is relatively simple,is not only suitable for evaluating the copyright value of derivative films,but also the valuation result is not a simple addition of the traditional DCF model valuation and BS model valuation.Instead,it is the result of the integration of the two models,that is,the valuation result shows low sensitivity to the high uncertainty of box office revenue,which is of great significance for promoting market-oriented investment in derivative films.