省际边界对产业结构演变的影响——以淮海经济区为例

Influence of Interprovincial Border on Industrial Structure Evolution:A Case Study of the Huaihai Economic Zone

利用产业结构差异度模型和空间杜宾模型探究2005-2020年淮海经济区省际边界对产业结构演变的影响效应及作用机理。结果表明:①研究期内淮海经济区产业结构层次不断提升,空间上由低水平均衡转变为极化发展;②研究期内省际边界的影响效应由切变效应逐渐转化为中介效应,切变效应在空间上由中间向外围转移;③行政干预是形成人为边界的重要原因,会加强淮海经济区省际边界的切变效应,人均GDP的提高是省际边界切变效应逐渐转化为中介效应的重要原因之一,但人均消费品零售额的提高则会抑制这种转化,而人均全社会固定资产投资额对切变效应的影响不大。最后,根据研究结果从产业发展、协同合作等方面提出建议。

Based on the panel data from 2005 to 2020,this paper integrated the industrial structure difference degree model and the spatial Durbin model,and took the Huaihai Economic Zone as the study area to analyze the effect and mechanism of interprovincial border on the evolution of industrial structure.It is found as follows.①The level of industrial structure in the Huaihai Economic Zone during the study period has been continuously improved,and the spatial equilibrium has changed from low level to polarized development.②During the study period,the influence of interprovincial border gradually changed from shear effect to intermediary effect,and the shear effect shifted from the middle to the periphery in space.③Administrative intervention is an important reason for the formation of artificial border,and it will strengthen the shear effect of interprovincial border in the Huaihai Economic Zone.The increase of per capita GDP is also one of the important reasons for the gradual transformation of the shear effect into intermediary effect,but the increase of per capita retail sales of consumer goods will inhibit this transformation,while the per capita social fixed asset investment has little influence on the shear effect.Finally,according to the analysis results,some suggestions are put forward from the aspects of industrial development and cooperation.