自然灾害人口综合风险评估——以宁波市奉化区为例

Comprehensive population risk assessment of natural disasters:a case study of Fenghua District,Ningbo City

为评估自然灾害人口综合风险,加强多灾种风险防范,以人类生命体为承灾体,建立了基于危险性、暴露度、脆弱性和防灾减灾能力的风险评估指标体系,利用改进的CRITIC法确定指标权重。考虑不同灾害间的相关关系,引入风险系数并建立多灾种综合危险性的分析模型。以宁波市奉化区为例,选取了该地区常见的6种自然灾害,评估多灾种人口综合风险。研究结果表明:单灾种的危险性评估结果符合实际,奉化地区主要受台风洪涝灾害影响,岳林街道、锦屏街道、松岙镇和溪口镇的多灾种人口综合风险指数较高。

In order to assess the comprehensive population risk of natural disasters and strengthen the risk prevention ability of multiple disasters,a risk assessment index system based on hazard,exposure,vulnerability and emergency response&recovery capability is established by taking human beings as disaster-bearing bodies.The improved CRITIC method is used to determine the index weight,and the correlation between two disasters is considered.By considering the correlation between disasters,a risk coefficient is introduced and the analysis model of multi-disaster comprehensive risk is established.By taking Fenghua District of Ningbo City as an example,six common disasters in the area are selected to assess the comprehensive population risk of multi-disaster.The results show that the risk assessment results of a single disaster are in line with the actual situation.The population in Fenghua area is mainly affected by the typhoon-flood disaster.The comprehensive risk indexes of multi-disaster population in Yuelin Street,JinPing Street,SongAo Town and Xikou Town are higher.