政策性农业保险提升了农业经济韧性吗?——基于完全成本保险和收入保险试点的准自然实验

Has policy-guided agricultural insurance improved the agricultural economic resilience?——Based on the quasi-natural experiment of full cost insurance and income insurance pilot

基于完全成本保险和收入保险试点的准自然实验,采用广义矩估计法测算中国农业经济韧性水平,并利用双重差分法实证分析政策性农业保险对农业经济韧性的影响及其作用机制。研究发现:中国农业经济韧性水平总体较高,呈波动趋稳态势;政策性农业保险能够提升农业经济韧性,在一系列稳健性检验后结论依然成立;政策性农业保险通过促进农业规模经营、调整农业种植结构、提升农业全要素生产率,赋能农业经济韧性;在农业自然风险高与外贸依存度高的地区,政策性农业保险对农业经济韧性的影响更为显著。

Based on a quasi-natural experiment of full-cost insurance and income insurance pilot scheme,the resilience level of China’s agricultural economy has been measured by adopting the generalized method of moments,and the influence of policy-guided agricultural insurance on the agricultural economic resilience and its mechanism have been analyzed empirically by utilizing the method of difference-in-difference.The research has found that the overall resilience level of China’s agricultural economy is relatively high,showing a fluctuating trend.Policy-guided agricultural insurance could improve the agricultural economic resilience,and a series of robustness tests prove that the conclusion still stands.Policy-guided agricultural insurance could enhance the agricultural economic resilience through promoting large-scale agricultural operations,adjusting agricultural planting structures,and boosting agricultural total factor productivity.The impact of policy-guided agricultural insurance on agricultural economic resilience is more significant in areas with high agricultural natural risk and high dependence on foreign trade.