藏粮于地:土地利用对粮食单产的影响

Grain production strategy based on farmland management:The impact of land use on grain yield per unit area

基于“藏粮于地”战略背景,采用全国10省(区、市)950户农户数据,在将土地利用分为规模经营、可持续耕作、结构调整的基础上,利用普通最小二乘法、两阶段最小二乘法和调节效应模型实证分析土地利用对农户粮食单产的影响效应与路径。结果表明:规模经营对粮食单产的影响呈先增后减趋势,即呈倒“U”形关系,可持续耕作能够显著提升粮食单产,而结构调整显著负向影响粮食单产;规模经营在可持续耕作、结构调整影响农户粮食单产中具有正向调节效应;对于耕地禀赋不同的农户,规模经营、可持续耕作对农户粮食单产的影响存在差异性。

Based on the grain production strategy based on farmland management,the data of 950 farmers in 10 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)of China,and the method of dividing the land use into scale management,sustainable farming and structural adjustment,the impact and paths of land use on farmers’grain yield per unit area have been analyzed empirically by utilizing ordinary least square method,two-stage least square method and moderating effect model.The research shows that the effect of scale management on grain yield per unit area increased first and then decreased,showing a trend of an inverted“U”shape.Sustainable farming can significantly increase grain yield per unit area while structural adjustment has a significant negative impact on grain yield per unit area.Scale management plays a positive regulating role in the impact of sustainable farming and structural adjustment on farmers’grain yield per unit area.For farmers in different areas with different natural environments and resources,the effects of scale management and sustainable farming on farmers’grain yield per unit area are different.