基于多元数据融合的枢纽区边坡整体安全预警指标研究

Research on overall safety early warning indicator for hydropower project slopes based on muti-data fusion method

目前枢纽区边坡安全预警模型存在一定局限性,如对多测点的综合分析考虑不足、忽略边坡不同区域稳定性差异等。针对这些问题,从边坡的结构特性和整体稳定性两方面入手,采用多元数据融合技术并结合实际工程开展预警指标研究工作。首先,引入“安全稳定率”概念以量化岩体结构特性对边坡稳定性影响;其次,建立安全稳定率与危险权重的转换方法,推导出危险权重与Copula函数的组合公式;最后,提出基于Copula函数的枢纽区边坡运行期整体安全预警指标。工程案例表明,预警指标能够体现岩质边坡结构特性,体现多测点残差的总体变化趋势,并最终反映枢纽区边坡的整体稳定性;预警监控体系可为枢纽区边坡整体稳定性评价提供理论支撑。

Current early warning models for slope safety in hydropower engineering exhibit certain limitations,such as insufficient consideration of multi-point comprehensive analysis and neglect of stability differences across various slope regions.To address these issues,this study approaches from the perspectives of slope structural characteristics and overall stability.By employing multi-data fusion technology and integrating actual engineering practices,we develop early warning indicators.Firstly,the concept of“Safety Stability Rate”is introduced to quantify the impact of rock mass structural characteristics on slope stability.Secondly,a method for converting Safety Stability Rate to Hazard Weight is established,and a combined formula for Hazard Weight and Copula function is derived.Finally,an overall safety early warning indicator based on the Copula function for the operational period of slopes in hydropower engineering is proposed.Engineering case studies demonstrate that the early warning indicators can reflect the structural characteristics of rock slopes,indicate the overall trend of multi-point residuals,and ultimately reflect the overall stability of slopes in hydropower engineering.The early warning monitoring system provides theoretical support for evaluating the overall stability of slopes in hydropower engineering.