以人口高质量发展培育新质生产力:内在逻辑和实践路径

High-quality Population Development to Cultivate New Quality Productivity:Internal Logic and Practical Path

近年来中国正面临着人口转变与经济转型的历史性交汇,如何以人口高质量发展培育新质生产力,是我国社会经济发展的重要命题。在理论逻辑上,人口与生产力的关系在人类社会的演进中呈现出不同的规律。前工业社会时期,人口在增长和衰减间周期性摇摆;进入工业社会后,人口与生产力呈现结构性互动关系;步入后工业社会时代,人口要素的创新性转化成为生产力发展的核心动力。在实践逻辑上,人口高质量发展为新质生产力提供了有力支撑。人口总量充裕的规模效应引领新兴产业发展方向,人口素质优良的创新效应保障科技创新动力强劲,人口结构优化的结构红利促进生产要素组合效率跃升,人口分布合理的集聚效应促进要素空间配置优化。在实践逻辑的指导下,可以从系统性观念谋划、人才培养模式创新、有效劳动供给、市场需求引领几个方面展开具体措施,以实现人口高质量发展培育新质生产力的目标。

In recent years,China has run into a historical crossroads of demographic shifts and economic transitions.At the forefront of societal and economic progress,a pressing concern arises:how can we attain high-quality population development cultivating new quality productive forces?Regarding the population and productivity as our conceptual cornerstone,this paper aims to reveal the evolutionary patterns of such relationship across various societal and historical epochs.Theoretically,we propose three distinct relationships between population and productivity:in the pre-industrial era,the population trends oscillated within a growth-decline cycle;during the industrial revolution,the population and productivity interact structurally;and in the post-industrial age,the innovative transformation of demographic factors emerges as a key driver of productive growth..Guided by this theoretical logic,the paper investigates the theoretical origins of high-quality population development and constructs a framework aimed at fostering new productive forces through the enhancement of population quality.Utilizing this theoretical framework,the paper analyzes the fundamental essence of both high-quality population development and new productive forces,thereby formulating a practical logic.Specifically,high-quality population development serves as a robust foundation for the cultivation of new productive forces.The scale effect of a large population base steers the trajectory of emerging industries,while the innovation effect of a skilled and competent populace ensures continuous innovation and technological advancement.The structural dividend yielded by an optimized population structure enhances the efficiency of production factor combinations,propelling leapfrog growth.Finally,the concentration effect brought about by the rational distribution of the population fosters the optimal spatial allocation of production factors.Incorporating practical logic,this paper distills three operational principles for implementing concrete pathways:the principles of systemic coherence,comprehensive quality enhancement,and people-oriented development.These principles serve as guiding lights for specific initiatives aimed at advancing high-quality population development and fostering new productive forces.Emphasizing the theoretical and practical significance of“people”as the most dynamic factor in fostering productive forces,this paper sheds light on the role of population economics in promoting the development of new productive forces,aligning with the evolving demands of China’s population and productive forces in the new developmental phase.