跨界融合供应链网络风险传播建模及抗毁性研究

Risk propagation modeling and invulnerability research of crossboundaryintegrated supply chain network

跨区域、跨行业、跨组织融合已成为重要的发展趋势,分析跨界融合供应链网络的风险传播过程,探讨跨界融合供应链网络抗毁性的提升策略,对跨界融合供应链网络应对风险冲击、实现安全稳定发展具有重要意义.对此,基于分布在不同产业领域的企业开展跨界合作的现实情况,从多层网络视角出发构建跨界融合供应链网络风险传播模型,并从网络结构、恢复策略等方面对网络抗毁性进行仿真分析.结果表明:1)部分相依模式下跨界融合供应链网络抗毁性更强;2)供应链核心企业或跨界团队企业受到风险冲击时,网络抗毁性下降幅度更加明显;3)网络恢复策略的恢复效益存在边际递减效应;4)全相依模式下跨界融合供应链网络的抗毁性恢复效果优于部分相依模式;5)调整风险传播模型参数能在一定范围内提高网络抗毁性,抑制风险大规模扩散.

Cross-regional,cross-industry and cross-organization integration has become an important development trend.It is of great significance to analyze the risk propagation process and explore the strategies to improve the invulnerability of the cross-boundary integrated supply chain networks to cope with the risk shocks and achieve safe and stable development.Based on the reality of cross-boundary cooperation among some enterprises distributed in different industrial fields,this study constructs a risk propagation model of the cross-boundary integrated supply chain network from the perspective of multilayer networks,then simulates and analyzes network invulnerability based on network structure and recovery strategy.The results show that:1)The cross-boundary integrated supply chain network under the partial dependency mode has stronger invulnerability;2)When core supply chain enterprises or cross-boundary team enterprises are shocked by risks,the decline in network invulnerability is more obvious;3)There is a marginal diminishing effect on the recovery benefit of network recovery strategies;4)The invulnerability recovery effect of cross-boundary integrated supply chain network under the fully dependent mode is better than that of the partial dependent mode;5)Adjusting the parameters of the risk propagation model can improve the network invulnerability and inhibit the large-scale spread of risks within a certain range.