摘要
鄂尔多斯红庆河煤矿区处在西部干旱半干旱内陆区域,由于煤炭开采导致生态环境问题较为突出,该区域水资源短缺、供需失衡,严重制约了矿区的生态恢复。在充分的自然概况调查基础上,将红庆河煤矿区生态需水划分为天然生态需水和人工生态需水2种类型。通过植被蒸散法对植被生态需水进行计算,使用马尔科夫链进行定性预测,利用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)进行定量预测。结果表明:以2020年为基准年,红庆河煤矿区总生态需水量为37.52×10^(7)m^(3),天然植被每平方千米乔木、灌木、草地生态需水量分别为1.11×10^(6)、1.06×10^(6)、0.36×10^(6)m^(3);人工生态需水量为1.39×10^(7)m^(3)。进一步对研究区生态需水进行定性、定量预测,规划年(2025年、2030年、2035年)矿区天然生态需水量相比基准年分别上升了0.61%、2.57%和4.57%;人工生态需水量分别上升了3.60%、11.51%和20.86%。研究结果可为该地区生态恢复中植被类型选择、水资源开发利用、合理调配水资源提供科学依据。
The Ordos Hongqinghe Coal Mine Area is situated in the western arid and semi-arid inland region.Ecological challenges are notably pronounced here due to coal mining activities.The scarcity of water resources and the imbalance between supply and demand have significantly impeded efforts towards ecological restoration in the area.The ecological water demand of the Hongqinghe Coal Mine Area is categorized into two types:natural ecological water demand and artificial ecological water demand,based on thorough natural investigations.The vegetation ecological water demand was determined using the vegetation evapotranspiration method,qualitatively predicted through Markov chain analysis,and quantitatively forecasted utilizing the gray prediction model GM(1,1).The results indicated that,using 2020 as the base year,the total ecological water demand of the Hongqinghe Coal Mine Area is 37.52×10^(7) m^(3).The ecological water demand per square kilometer for natural vegetation,including trees,shrubs and grasslands,is 1.11×10^(6)、1.06×10^(6)and 0.36×10^(6)m^(3),respectively.Additionally,the man-made ecological water demand is 1.39×10^(7) m^(3).Further ecological water demand of the study area is qualitative and quantitative predictions,the natural ecological water demand of the mining area in the planning years(2025,2030 and 2035)increased by 0.61%,2.57%and 4.57%,respectively,compared with the base year.Additionally,the artificial ecological water demand increased by 3.60%,11.51%and 20.86%respectively.The results of the study offer a scientific foundation for selecting vegetation types,developing and utilizing water resources,and making rational allocations of water resources for the ecological restoration of the area.
作者
姜庆宏
张靖雯
郑春丽
王哲
龙文毫
JIANG Qinghong;ZHANG Jingwen;ZHENG Chunli;WANG Zhe;LONG Wenhao(School of Energy and Environment,Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology,Baotou 014010,China;School of Resource and Environmental Engineering,Shanghai Second Institute of Technology,Shanghai 201209,China)
出处
《金属矿山》
CAS
北大核心
2024年第9期260-266,共7页
Metal Mine
基金
鄂尔多斯市科技重大专项(编号:2021ZD社14-16)
内蒙古自然科学基金项目(编号:2023MS04010)
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:52264013)
内蒙古科技大学基本科研业务费专项(编号:2023CXPT004)。
关键词
生态需水
灰色预测模型
马尔科夫链
定量预测
ecological water demand
gray prediction model
Markov chain
quantitative predictio