新质生产力背景下物流业集聚对碳排放的影响

Impact of Logistics Industrial Conglomeration on Carbon Emissions in Context of New Quality Productivity

基于2012-2021年中国30个省份的面板数据,测算了物流产业集聚水平及其对物流业碳排放量的影响。采用空间面板数据模型,并引入数字化水平、信息化水平和技术创新能力等控制变量进行实证分析。研究结果表明:我国中部经济带和西部经济带物流产业集聚水平高于东部经济带;2012-2021年全国物流业碳排放呈空间负相关;物流产业集聚会增加本地区和邻近地区的物流业碳排放,其他影响因素中,互联网用户数、软件收益、信息服务收益等新质生产力指标与本地区碳排放有显著的负向关系;中部经济带和西部经济带物流产业集聚会使物流业碳排放量显著增加,但东部经济带物流产业集聚则对物流业碳排放量的影响相对较小。基于此,提出减少物流业碳排放的对策与建议,以实现物流产业的可持续发展。

In this paper,we measure the level of logistics industrial conglomeration and its impact on the carbon emissions of the logistics industry based on panel data from 30 provinces/cities in China from 2012 to 2021,and using the spatial panel data model,introduce in control variables such as digitalization level,infor⁃matization level,and technological innovation capability for an empirical analysis.The research results show that:first,in China,the conglomeration level of the logistics industry in the cen⁃tral and western regions is higher than that in the eastern region.Due to the difference in economic founda⁃tion and industrial structure,despite the rather low level of logistics industry conglomeration,the eastern re⁃gion has relatively mature logistics businesses and low carbon emissions intensity.In contrast,the central and western regions are experiencing rapid logistics development,where the conglomeration level of the logistics industry has been increasing significantly;however,due to the relatively backward infrastructure and weak technological innovation capabilities,they are under heavy carbon emissions pressure.Secondly,the result of a spatial autocorrelation analysis shows that from 2012 to 2021,the carbon emissions of the logistics industry nationwide demonstrated negative spatial correlation,that is,the carbon emissions have certain diffusion and correlation effect across the regions.Thirdly,the empirical result shows that the conglomeration of the logis⁃tics industry has significant positive impact on the logistics carbon emissions of a region and its neighboring regions,meaning that the conglomeration of the logistics industry has driven economic growth and at the same time also raised the level of carbon emissions.Next,the study finds new quality productivity indicators such as population of Internet users,software revenue,and information service revenue have significant nega⁃tive impact on the carbon emissions of the logistics industry and finally that the conglomeration of the logis⁃tics industry will significantly increase carbon emissions in the central and western economic regions but rela⁃tively not so in the eastern region.Based on the above research findings,we put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.First,we should strengthen the control of carbon emissions in high-concentration areas in central and western China and improve the application level of green technology;second,we should promote the widespread ap⁃plication of the Internet and information technology in the logistics industry to improve industry efficiency while reducing carbon emissions;finally,it is recommended to strengthen inter-regional cooperation,pro⁃mote cross-regional carbon emissions collaborative governance,and achieve the sustainable development of the logistics industry.The research can provide theoretical support and policy basis for the green transforma⁃tion and high-quality development of the logistics industry in the context of new quality productivity.