中国玉米自给率时空格局变化驱动因素及区域异质性分析

Analysis of Driving Factors and Regional Heterogeneity in the Spatiotemporal Changes of Maize Self-Sufficiency Rate in China

测算1999-2022年中国及各区域的玉米自给率,分析其时空格局及其变化趋势,通过空间杜宾模型分析中国玉米自给率的驱动因素,并对各区域进行异质性检验。研究表明,1999-2022年中国玉米自给率呈波动式下降趋势,阶段性、区域性特征明显。技术因素是影响中国玉米自给率变化的主要因素。东北、华中、西南、西北地区生产因素影响显著,经济因素对华东、华南地区影响显著;政策因素对6个区域玉米自给率时空格局变化影响较大,技术因素影响最显著。提出关注玉米自给率的空间互动效应、加大科技投入、各地区有针对性的提升玉米单位面积产量和降低成本等相关政策建议。

This study measures the maize self-sufficiency rate in China and its regions from 1999 to 2022,ana⁃lyzing its spatiotemporal patterns and trends.Using the spatial Dubin model,the driving factors of China’s maize self-sufficiency rate are analyzed,and regional heterogeneity is tested.The research shows that,China's maize selfsufficiency rate showed a fluctuating downward trend with obvious stage and regional characteristics during the peri⁃od.Technical factors are the main factors affecting the changes of maize self-sufficiency rate in China.Production factors significantly influence the Northeast,Central China,Southwest,and Northwest regions,while economic fac⁃tors notably impact East and South China.Policy factors largely affect the spatiotemporal patterns of maize self-suffi⁃ciency across all six regions,with technical factors being the most significant.In this regard,it is recommended to fo⁃cus on the spatial interaction effect of maize self-sufficiency;increase investment in science and technology,the re⁃gion targeted to improve maize yield per unit area and reduce costs and other related policy recommendations.