矿区油气管道滑坡的稳定性分析及危险性评价

Stability Analysis and Risk Assessment of Oil and Gas Pipeline Landslide

为有效掌握油气管道滑坡的稳定性及其危险性,基于滑坡现场勘查成果及变形数据,先采用传递系数法和尖点突变分析开展滑坡稳定性评价,再利用P×C分级法评价不同评价指标对管道的危险性程度。结果表明:通过传递系数法计算,得出3个监测剖面在不同工况条件下的稳定性系数范围为1.005~1.224,属欠稳定~稳定状态;通过尖点突变分析,得到5个监测点的突变特征值范围为3.961×10~9~5.331×10~9,均大于0,说明各监测点对应位置均处于稳定状态;对比传递系数法和尖点突变分析的稳定性评价结果,综合得出滑坡目前处于稳定性状态;在危险性评价结果中,整体评价的危险性得分为81.25,总体得分偏高,危险性等级属Ⅲ级,即滑坡灾害对管道威胁一般,需尽快开展局部及整体的防治措施研究,以保证管道安全。

In order to effectively grasp the stability and danger of oil and gas pipeline landslides,based on the results of on-site landslide investigation and deformation data,the transfer coefficient method and sharp point mutation analysis are first used to evaluate the stability of landslides,and then the P xC classification method is used to evaluate the degree of danger of different evaluation indicators on the pipeline.The example analysis results show that through the transfer coefficient method calculation,the stability coefficient range of the three monitoring profiles under different operating conditions is 1.005~1.224,belonging to an unstable~stable state;Through sharp point mutation analysis,the range of mutation characteristic values for 5 monitoring points is 3.961×10^(9)~5.331×10^(9),all greater than 0,indicating that the corresponding positions of each monitoring point are in a stable state;By comparing the stability evaluation results of the transfer coefficient method and the sharp point mutation analysis,it is concluded that the landslide is currently in a stable state;In the risk assessment results,the overall risk score is 81.25,which is relatively high.The risk level belongs to level Ⅲ,which means that landslide disasters pose a moderate threat to pipelines.Therefore,it is necessary to carry out local and overall prevention and control measures research as soon as possible to ensure pipeline safety.