基于行为轨迹的中庭式酒店COVID-19感染概率研究

Research on the probability of COVID-19 infection in atrium-style hotels based on behavioral trajectory

中庭式酒店建筑因中庭空间人员密集、气流波动大,属呼吸道传染疾病高感染概率区域,建筑高大公共空间的传染概率有待研究.以某中庭式酒店为研究对象,基于该酒店人流状况、行为轨迹的实测,通过回归分析,得到该酒店人流密度的分布规律;运用Anylogic软件,结合Wells-Riley感染概率计算模型,对不同类型人员感染后的酒店人群感染概率进行模拟.通过模拟可知,住宿人群、就餐人群、商务会议三类人群中单一人群感染时,感染概率分别为29.3%,17.9%,36.4%;当三类人员及后勤人员共同耦合感染时,感染概率增加至42.6%.通过对污染物颗粒的时空分布规律的分析发现三层、标准层污染物颗粒较多;人员交叉与感染概率呈正相关;流线交叉较多的就餐空间、滞留时间较长休闲空间、竖向交通空间等应重点考虑设计措施以降低其感染概率;该研究为人员行为轨迹下的酒店空间的布局优化提供研究思路,为疫情背景下寒冷地区中庭式酒店平疫结合酒店空间布局设计研究提供理论依据.

The atrium-style hotel building is an area with high probability of respiratory infectious diseases due to the dense population and large air flow fluctuation in the atrium space.The infection probability of the tall public space buildings needs to be studied.This study selects an atrium-style hotel as the research object,based on actual measurements of the hotel′s pedestrian volume and behavioral trajectories.Through regression analysis,the distribution of the hotel′s pedestrian density is obtained.Using Anylogic software and substituting the Wells-Riley infection probability calculation model,the infection probability of different types of hotel population was simulated.When a single group of the accommodation group,dining group,business meeting group is infected,the infection probability is 29.3%,17.9%,36.4%respectively.When all the three groups and logistical group are jointly infected,the infection probability increases to 42.6%.Through the temporal and spatial distribution of pollutant particles,it is found that there are more pollutant particles on the third layer and standard layer within the building.Personnel crossing is positively correlated with infection probability.Design measures should be considered to reduce the infection probability in dining spaces with more streamlines cross,leisure spaces with longer stays,vertical traffic spaces.The study provides a research approach for optimizing the layout of hotel spaces in the context of personnel behavior trajectories and offers a theoretical basis for designing atrium-style hotels in cold areas combined with anti-epidemic measures.