欧亚国家政治安全评估--以俄乌冲突背景下的俄罗斯为例

Political Security Assessment of Eurasian Countries-Case-Study of Russia in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

政治风险研究主要探讨因风险主体变化对客体利益产生的影响,主要目标是将国家和政体特征与政治风险事件关联起来,以完成对风险点、风险概率及风险前兆的推断,大致分为政策识别、政体分类、指标建构三种研究倾向,至今已建立比较系统、完备的风险识别指标体系,但仍存在过度关注客体、依赖标准模型、忽视外部冲击等内在缺陷,导致评估失实失真失效。欧亚国家政治安全评估至少需要综合国家治理、政权稳定、转型进程、政治风险四类指标的共性特征,并在此基础上作出符合本土历史与现实的修订。以俄罗斯为例,政治安全评估至少应包括国家能力、政府效能、精英与官僚、规则与法治、政权的社会基础、稳定的连续性六方面内容。当前俄罗斯国家和政府由于其政策学习能力、官僚整合能力和历史反思能力,正在逐步适应冲突与制裁,但这样的适应需要付出代价。军事冲突和经济制裁是影响当前俄罗斯政治的主要外部因素。

Political risk research mainly explores the impact of changes in risk subjects on the interests of the object.The main goal is to link national and political system characteristics with political risk events to complete the inference of risk points,risk probabilities and risk precursors.It can be roughly divided into three research tendencies:policy identification,political system classification,and indicator construction.So far,a relatively systematic and complete risk identification indicator system has been established,but there are still inherent defects such as excessive attention to the object,reliance on standard models,and neglect of external shocks,which lead to inaccurate and ineffective assessments.The political security assessment of Eurasian countries at least needs to integrate the common characteristics of the following four types of indicators:national governance,regime stability,transition process,and political risk,and make revisions in line with local history and reality on this basis.Taking Russia as an example,political security assessment should at least include six aspects:national capacity,government effectiveness,elites and bureaucrats,rules and rule of law,social foundation of the regime,and continuity of stability.At present,the Russian state and government are gradually adapting to conflicts and sanctions due to their policy learning ability,bureaucratic integration ability,and historical reflection ability,but such adaptation requires a price.Military conflicts and economic sanctions are the main external factors affecting current Russian politics.