俄乌冲突与西方制裁下俄罗斯经济结构调整:特征、影响与启示

Russia's Economic Restructuring Under the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Western Sanctions:Characteristics,Impact and Revelation

俄乌冲突爆发以来,美欧等国家对俄罗斯实施了史无前例的制裁。俄罗斯被剥夺WTO最惠国待遇,对外贸易遭大面积限制,海外金融资产被冻结,外币融资渠道遭到切断,对外金融服务受到限制。面对美欧联合制裁,俄罗斯经济展现出较强韧性。经济内循环动能显著增强,国内消费对经济拉动作用愈发突出,投资拉动国内供给的作用明显增强,财政收支的内循环特征得到强化,产业结构对国内市场的依赖度提高。经济外循环特征发生重大调整,净出口对经济贡献度快速下降,同友好及中立国家贸易联系更为紧密,与欧盟贸易全面“脱钩”;外国直接投资大幅下降,对外资产负债的避险特征增强。俄罗斯经济发展模式调整对全球经济产生了明显外溢影响,主要体现在:欧洲因能源替代压力陷入发展困境;部分发展中国家国际收支恶化,陷入主权债务危机;地缘政治因素对全球贸易和跨境资金流动影响愈发突出。尽管具备经济结构转型和稳定发展的基本条件,但俄罗斯实现长期较快增长仍面临挑战。俄罗斯经济结构调整对我国更好地适应地缘政治环境变化、防范制裁风险提供了有益参考。我国应积极把握后疫情时代国际秩序演进趋势,不断挖掘消费投资潜力,巩固经济内循环基础;提升国内供给能力,推动产业结构升级;编织制裁免疫“安全网”,推进更高水平外循环增长;调整对外资产负债结构,促进金融体系平稳运行。

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the United States,Europe and other Western countries have imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia.Russia has been deprived of WTO most-favoured-nation treatment,foreign trade has been largely restricted,overseas financial assets have been frozen,financing channels of foreign currencies have been cut off,external financial services have been restricted.Facing joint sanctions by the United States and Europe,Russia's economy has shown resilience.The internal circulation momentum of the economy has been significantly enhanced,domestic consumption has become more and more prominent in driving the economy,the role of investment in stimulating domestic supply capacity has been significantly enhanced,the internal circulation characteristics of fiscal revenue and expenditure have been strengthened,and the industrial structure has become more dependent on the domestic market.The characteristics of the external circulation of the economy have undergone major adjustments.The contribution of net exports to the economy has declined rapidly.Trade ties with friendly and neutral countries have become closer,and trade with the EU has been fully"decoupled"Foreign direct investment has dropped significantly,and the risk-averse characteristics of external assets and liabilities have increased.The adjustment of Russia's economic development model has had a significant spillover impact on the global economy,which is mainly reflected in:Europe is stuck in development difficulties due to the pressure of energy substitution;some developing countries'international balance of payments has deteriorated and fallen into a sovereign debt crisis;geopolitical factors have an increasingly prominent impact on global trade and cross-border capital flows.Although Russia has the basic conditions for economic structural transformation and stable development,it still faces great challenges in achieving long-term rapid growth.The adjustment of Russia's economic structure provides a useful reference for our country to better adapt to changes in the geopolitical environment and prevent sanctions risks.China should actively grasp the evolving trend of the international order in the post-pandemic era,continue to tap the potential of consumption and investment,and consolidate the foundation of the internal economic cycle;improve domestic supply capabilities and promote the upgrading of the industrial structure;weave a"safety net"for sanctions immunity and promote higher-level external circulation growth;adjust the structure of external assets and liabilities to promote the smooth operation of the financial system.