银行金融科技对贷款损失准备计提顺周期的影响:推波助澜还是解危济困

The Impact of Fintech on the Pro-cyclical Behavior of Bank Loan Loss Provision:Intensify or Mitigate?

商业银行贷款损失准备计提的顺周期行为会加剧金融市场的震荡,因此,如何缓释其顺周期性始终是金融监管的一大焦点。本文基于我国233家商业银行2010—2021年间数据,探究了银行金融科技对其贷款损失准备计提顺周期的影响。实证研究发现,商业银行的金融科技应用能够显著缓解贷款损失准备计提的顺周期性。这一结论在一系列内生性以及稳健性检验后,依然保持稳健。机制分析发现,金融科技通过显著增强银行贷款损失准备计提的前瞻性,缓解了贷款损失准备计提的顺周期行为,凸显了金融科技对商业银行的赋能效果。从宏微观层面进行的异质性分析发现,在规模较小、外部监管水平较低的商业银行中,以及在宏观经济信心相对不足时期,顺周期问题更为严重;而金融科技对商业银行顺周期行为的缓解作用则在规模较小、外部监管水平较低和报表粉饰程度较弱的银行中更为显著。分解检验发现,金融科技中,“科技管理”对缓释银行贷款损失准备计提顺周期性的作用最大。

The pro-cyclical behavior of loan loss provisioning by commercial banks can exacerbate the volatility of financial markets.How to mitigate its pro-cyclical nature has always been a focal point of financial regulation.This paper,based on data from 233 commercial banks in China from 2010 to 2021,explores the impact of banks'financial technology on the pro-cyclical provisioning of loan losses.Empirical research has found that the application of financial technology by commercial banks can significantly alleviate the pro-cyclical provisioning of loan losses.After a series of endogeneity and robustness tests,the results remain robust.Mechanism analysis reveals that financial technology significantly enhances the forward-looking nature of loan loss provisioning by banks,helping to mitigate the pro-cyclical behavior of loan loss provisioning,highlighting the empowering effect of financial technology on commercial banks.Heterogeneity analysis conducted from macro and micro perspectives reveals that the pro-cyclical problem is more severe in smaller banks,banks with lower levels of external supervision,and during periods of relatively insufficient macroeconomic confidence.Moreover,the mitigating effect of financial technology on the pro-cyclical behavior of commercial banks is more pronounced in smaller banks,banks with lower levels of external supervision,and those with weaker financial statement window-dressing.Finally,the decomposition test finds that"technology management"plays the greatest role in mitigating thepro-cyclical provisioning of loan losses bybanks.