气候变化对灯盏花(Erigeron breviscapus)在中国潜在适生区的影响

Impacts of climate change on the potential suitable area of Erigeron breviscapus in China

为了探讨气候变化对灯盏花潜在生态适宜区的影响,基于灯盏花(Erigeron breviscapus)分布数据、气候、土壤和地形等环境因子,运用MaxEnt模型模拟灯盏花在中国的潜在分布,采用刀切法筛选出影响灯盏花潜在分布的关键环境因子,并借助于ArcGIS软件中的空间分析工具分析气候变化对我国灯盏花潜在适生区的影响。结果表明:MaxEnt模型能够极好地模拟灯盏花的潜在分布,气温年较差、年均降水量和海拔是影响灯盏花潜在分布的关键环境因子;与基准气候(1970—2000年)相比,可持续发展路径(SSP126)情景和中间发展路径(SSP245)情景下灯盏花高适生区面积分别减少了21229.17、16053.47 km^(2),仅传统发展路径(SSP585)情景下中高适生区面积共增加27749.03 km^(2),SSP126和SSP245情景下灯盏花适生区的质心均向东南方向移动,仅SSP585情景下灯盏花适生区的质心向东北方向移动。综上所述,各气候情景下灯盏花适生区均主要分布于我国西南地区,但SSP126和SSP245情景下灯盏花在我国的潜在适生区面积缩减,仅SSP585情景有利于我国灯盏花的分布。

In order to explore the impact of climate changes on the potential ecological suitable area of Erigeron breviscapu s,MaxEnt model was used to simulate the potential distribution of E.breviscapu s in China based on environmental factors such as E.breviscapus distribution data,climate,soil and terrain,and the key environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of E.breviscapu s were screened by Jackknife cutting method.The influence of climate changes on the potential suitable area in China was analyzed using the spatial analysis tool in ArcGIS software.The results showed that the MaxEnt model could excellently simulate the potential distribution of E.breviscapus,annual temperature range,annual mean precipitation and altitude were the key environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of E.breviscapus;Compared with the baseline climate(1970—2000 year),the sustainable development path(SSP126)and intermediate development path(SSP245)scenarios reduced the area of high suitability of E.breviscapus by 21229.17 km^(2)and 16053.47 km^(2),respectively,only in the traditional development path(SSP585)scenario,the area of middle and high suitable regions increased by 27749.03 km^(2).In the SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios,the centroid of suitable regions shifted to the southeast,while in the SSP585 scenario,the centroid shifted to the northeast.In summary,the suitable area of E.breviscapus was mainly distributed in southwest China under all climate scenarios,but SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios reduced the potential suitable area of E.breviscapus in China,and only SSP585 scenario was favorable to the distribution of E.breviscapus in China.