特大城市分圈层的人口老龄化时空演变特征、模式及规划响应——以广州市为例

The Spatial and Temporal Evolution Characteristics,Patterns and Planning Responses of Population Aging in Urban Subdivisions:A Case of Guangzhou

全球人口老龄化程度持续加深,西方地理学者已构建了地理学老龄化研究的基本框架,国内也兴起不同尺度的理论和实证研究,但以地理学视角的计量实证分析为主,缺乏规划和地理学双视角下更复合的研究。本研究以广州市为研究对象,采用第六次和第七次人口普查数据,在旧城区—中心城区—近郊区—远郊区的空间圈层下,以街道为基本单元,分析人口老龄化的静态特征和动态时空演变特征,提炼出分圈层的人口老龄化模式,并提出对应的规划响应策略。研究表明:广州市人口老龄化呈现出就地老化型、潜在老化型、输入化型和稀释化型等多种时空演变类型,其差异化的空间组织方式是分圈层的人口老龄化时空演变模式的外在表征。广州市要综合考虑不同圈层的经济社会特征、空间设施和个体发展需求等因素,构建分圈层的养老政策分区和差异化的空间设施配置模式,并发展资源主导的多元养老服务体系。

As global population aging deepens,western geographers have developed a basic framework for the research on geographical aging.In China,there has also been a rise in theoretical and empirical research at various scales.However,studies primarily focus on quantitative empirical analysis from a geographical perspective,and lack a more integrated approach that combines planning and geography.This paper takes Guangzhou as the research object,and utilizes the data from the sixth and seventh national censuses.It analyzes the static characteristics and dynamic spatiotemporal evolution of population aging across different spatial layers ranging from the old city to the central urban area,suburban areas,and exurban regions by taking the streets as the basic unit.And it also extracts the population aging patterns by layer and proposes the corresponding planning response strategies.The findings indicate that population aging in Guangzhou exhibits multiple spatiotemporal evolution types,including localized aging,potential aging,input-driven aging,and dilution aging.The differentiated spatial organization reflects the external manifestation of the layered spatiotemporal evolution patterns of population aging.Guangzhou must comprehensively consider the economic and social characteristics,spatial infrastructure,and individual development needs of different layers to construct layered pension policy zones and differentiated spatial facility allocation models.Furthermore,it should develop a resource-driven diversified elderly care service system.