疆煤外运铁路通道供需分析

Analysis of Supply and Demand for Railway Corridors for Xinjiang Coal Export Transportation

近年来“疆煤外运”量迅速增长,西北、西南等地区对新疆煤炭需求快速上升,但铁路作为“疆煤外运”的主要运输方式,已成为疆煤跨区域稳定供给的主要制约,目前形成的以兰新铁路为主轴、格库铁路为南翼、临哈铁路为北翼的“一轴两翼”布局难以满足日益增长的煤炭运输需要,大量铁路煤炭运输需求外溢至公路运输。本文从疆煤外运铁路运输供需关系出发,综合疆煤市场辐射范围对疆煤外运流量流向进行预测,并分析既有铁路运输供给与疆煤外运需求的关系;结合通道布局现状,提出出疆铁路通道能力提升的相关建议。

In recent years,the volume of“Xinjiang coal export”has grown rapidly,and the demand for Xinjiang coal in the northwest and southwest regions has risen rapidly,but the railway,as the main mode of transportation of“Xinjiang coal export”,has become the main constraint on the stable supply of Xinjiang coal across regions.The current layout of“one axis and two wings”with Lanzhou⁃Xinjiang Railway as the main axis,Ge′ermu⁃Ku′erle Railway as the south wing,and Linhe⁃Hami Railway as the north wing is difficult to meet the growing demand for coal transportation,and a large amount of railway coal transportation demand has overflowed to road transportation.Based on the supply and demand relationship of Xinjiang coal export railway transportation,this paper predicts the flow direction of Xinjiang coal export in consideration with the radiation scope of Xinjiang coal market,and analyzes the relationship between the existing railway transportation supply and Xinjiang coal export demand.Combined with the current situation of the corridor layout,some suggestions are put forward to improve the capacity of the Xinjiang railway corridor.