新型城镇化背景下的农业转移人口流入地选择

Destination choices for rural migrants in the context of new urbanization

农业转移人口是社会经济发展的重要动力,对城市竞争与发展意义重大,也关系着新型城镇化战略的落实。本文基于2017年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,采用条件logit模型解析城市特征对农业转移人口流入地选择的影响机制以及个体异质性作用。研究表明:(1)经济收入、发展机会、公共服务以及地理邻近性等因素是农业转移人口流向选择的重要依据;(2)人力资本差异影响农业转移人口对城市行政等级的选择,低学历农业转移人口倾向于流入低行政等级城市,而城市行政等级对高学历农业转移人口流入地选择无显著影响;(3)环境舒适度因素对农业转移人口流入地选择的影响逐渐显现,空气污染阻碍农业转移人口对流入城市的选择,优质的绿化环境对低学历农业转移人口和高学历老一代农业转移人口存在显著的负向影响;(4)对农业转移人口而言,其差异化的人力资本水平、生命周期阶段和流动特征,影响其对城市行政等级和环境舒适度的选择。研究结果拓展了对农业转移人口流入地选择机理的认识,可为合理引导农业转移人口流入和差异化制定人口政策提供参考依据。

Rural migrants represent a critical impetus for social and economic advancement,significantly influencing urban competitiveness and development,as well as the realization of new urbanization initiatives.Drawing on data from the China Migration Dynamics Survey in 2017,this study employs a conditional logit model to elucidate the impact mechanisms on the destination choices of rural migrants of city characteristics and individual heterogeneity.(1)Economic income,developmental opportunities,public services,and geographic proximity are the pivotal determinants in the destination choice of rural migrants.(2)Variations in human capital significantly influence the migrants’preferences regarding the administrative hierarchy of cities.Specifically,rural migrants with lower educational attainment are more inclined to migrate to cities with a lower administrative status,whereas the administrative hierarchy exerts no notable influence on the destination choices of highly educated migrants.(3)Environmental amenities play a non-negligible role in shaping the destination preferences of rural migrants.Air pollution deters the destination choice of rural migrants,while a highquality green environment exerts a significantly adverse effect on less educated migrants and older,more educated rural migrants.(4)The distinct levels of human capital,life cycle stages,and mobility characteristics among rural migrants further modulate their choices,such as the administrative hierarchy and environmental amenities of destination.This research enhance the understanding of the dynamics underpinning rural migrants’destination choices and offer valuable insights for the informed direction of rural migrant inflows and the formulation of targeted population policies.