海河流域水-能-碳系统耦合协调发展及驱动因素研究

Study on the Coupling Coordination Development and Driving Factors of Water-energy-carbon System in the Haihe River Basin

水、能资源短缺及碳排放超标是制约区域经济转型升级和生态文明建设的主要障碍,探究水-能-碳系统耦合关系是实现区域绿色低碳发展的重要基础。以海河流域水-能-碳系统为核心,基于组合赋权法和综合分析法,构建流域水-能-碳系统综合评价体系,利用耦合协调度、障碍度和地理探测器模型,探究2000—2021年海河流域水-能-碳系统耦合协调时空演变特征及驱动因素。结果表明:①海河流域水-能-碳系统的综合发展水平总体上呈上升态势,碳排放系统处于最高位水平,评价指数多年平均值为0.45。②海河流域水-能-碳系统的耦合协调度总体上呈现平稳发展特征,发展水平由濒临失调过渡到中级协调阶段。③地表水资源量、污水处理能力、经济发展水平、产业结构、政府调控能力和居民生活水平是制约水-能-碳系统发展最大的障碍因子和外部驱动因素。研究结果可为促进海河流域经济社会全面绿色转型和可持续发展提供理论支撑。

The shortage of water and energy resources,as well as excessive carbon emissions,are the main obstacles that constrain the transformation and upgrading of regional economy and the construction of ecological civilization.Exploring the coupling relationship between water energy carbon system is an important foundation for achieving green and low-carbon development in the region.Based on the combination weighting method and comprehensive analysis method,a comprehensive evaluation system for the water energy carbon system in the Haihe River Basin is constructed with the water energy carbon system as the core.Based on the coupling coordination degree,barrier degree and geographic detector model,the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of water-energy-carbon coupling coordination in Haihe River Basin from 2000 to 2021 were investigated.The results are as follows.Firstly,the comprehensive development level of the water energy carbon system in the Haihe River Basin is generally on the rise,with the carbon emission system at the highest level and an average evaluation index of 0.45 over the years.Secondly,the coupling coordination degree of the water energy carbon system in the Haihe River Basin generally shows a stable development characteristic,with the development level transitioning from near imbalance to intermediate coordination stage.Thirdly,the amount of surface water resources,sewage treatment capacity,economic development level,industrial structure,government regulation capacity,and residents′living standards are the biggest obstacles and external driving factors that constrain the development of the water energy carbon system.The research results can provide theoretical support for promoting the comprehensive green transformation and sustainable development of the economic and social development in the Haihe River Basin.