“生态诅咒”还是“生态福祉”:论农业生态承载力的碳排放效应

“Ecological Curse”or“Ecological Well-being”:On the Carbon Effects of Agroecological Carrying Capacity

基于2002—2021年长三角地区4省41市的面板数据,实证检验了农业生态承载力对农业碳排放强度的影响机理及传导路径。结果表明:(1)农业生态承载力与农业碳排放强度之间存在显著的倒U型关系,在经济发展初期,农业生态承载力提升显著促进了碳排放强度的增加,产生“生态诅咒”效应;跨越拐点后,“生态福祉”效应开始显现,农业生态承载力的提升将助力区域碳减排。经过多重稳健性检验后,二者间的倒U型关系仍然成立。(2)异质性分析发现,农业生态承载力与农业碳排放强度之间一般等级城市、城镇化率低的城市存在倒U型关系,城镇化率高的城市表现为正向促进作用,而高等级城市关系不显著。(3)机制分析发现,农业生态承载力主要通过影响农业产业集聚、农地经营规模和产业结构升级对农业碳排放强度发挥作用。(4)进一步分析发现,农业生态承载力存在显著的空间溢出效应,本地区农业生态承载力提升对周边地区的农业碳排放强度存在正向促进作用。为此,在推动农业碳减排过程中应特别重视提升区域农业生态承载力水平,积极促进农业生态系统的修复与保护,增强生态系统的服务与涵养机能。

Utilizing panel data from 41 cities and 4 provinces in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2002 to 2021,this paper empirically analyzes the mechanism and transmission path of the impact of agro-ecological carrying capacity on the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions.The findings indicate that:1)There is a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between agro-ecological carrying capacity and agricultural carbon emission intensity.Initially,an increase in agro-ecological carrying capacity significantly contributes to a rise in carbon emission intensity,leading to an“ecological curse”effect.However,after surpassing the inflection point,an“ecological well-being”effect emerges,where the enhancement of agro-ecological carrying capacity aids in regional carbon emission reduction.This inverted U-shaped relationship remains robust after multiple robustness tests.2)Heterogeneity analysis reveals an“inverted U-shaped”relationship between agro-ecological carrying capacity and agricultural carbon intensity in general-grade cities and cities with a low urbanization rate.In contrast,the relationship in cities with a high urbanization rate shows a positive contribution,while in high-grade cities,there is no significant effect.3)Mechanism analysis suggests that agro-ecological carrying capacity primarily influences agricultural carbon emission intensity through its impact on agricultural industry agglomeration,farmland scale of operation,and industrial structure upgrading.4)Further analysis indicates that agro-ecological carrying capacity exhibits a significant spatial spillover effect,where an increase in agro-ecological carrying capacity within a region positively affects the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions in neighboring regions.Therefore,in efforts to reduce carbon emissions in agriculture,special attention should be given to enhancing regional agro-ecological carrying capacity,actively promoting the restoration and protection of agro-ecosystems,and bolstering ecosystem services and nutrient functions.