基于水资源空间均衡的“四水四定”调控模型的应用

Application of water resources spatial equilibrium-based“defining city,land,population,and industry based on water”regulation and control model

将前期研究构建的基于水资源空间均衡的“四水四定”调控模型应用于山东省临沂市水资源空间均衡动态调控,在预测各区(县)用水量和用水指标的基础上,探究了各区(县)未来水资源空间均衡度,在不同时间尺度上对未来用水量进行了动态调控。结果表明:调控模型可靠性高且具备普适性;当前用水模式下临沂市未来水资源在空间上处于绝对均衡状态,仅水土匹配系数处于一般均衡状态;对各区(县)不同类型未来用水量进行动态调控,可在不同时间尺度上使临沂市水资源空间均衡的各项指标达到绝对均衡状态;在“四水四定”与水资源空间均衡的约束下,通过对未来长短期用水量的动态调控,临沂市预期用水量能够实现动态均衡。

The“defining city,land,population,and industry based on water”(DCLPIW)regulation and control model based on water resources spatial equilibrium constructed in previous research was used to carry out applied research of water resources spatial equilibrium dynamic regulation of Linyi City,Shandong Province.The spatial equilibrium of water resources in different districts(counties)in the future was explored based on the forecast results of water consumption and water use indicators,and dynamic regulation of future water consumption was conducted on different time scales.The results show that the regulation and control model is highly reliable and universally applicable,and future water resources in Linyi City are in an absolute spatial equilibrium state under the current water use pattern,only the water and soil matching coefficient is in a general equilibrium state.The dynamic regulation of future water consumption of different types in various districts(counties)can make the spatial equilibrium indicators of water resources in Linyi City reach the absolute equilibrium state on different time scales.Under the constraints of DCLPIW and spatial equilibrium of water resources,Linyi City is expected to realize dynamic equilibrium of water consumption based on the long-and short-term dynamic regulation of water consumption in the future.