考虑充电桩限制的电动汽车充电负荷预测

Electric Vehicle Charging Load Prediction Considering Limit of Charging Pile

针对大规模电动汽车接入配电网,提出一种考虑充电桩限制的电动汽车充电负荷预测方法。首先从单辆电动汽车入手,分析恒流-恒压充电方式下的锂电池充电特性,并进行简化,给出单辆电动汽车的充电模型;再从整体研究用户行为,运用蒙特卡洛模拟法,给出电动汽车起始充电时间和充电时长的随机分布;最后提出居民小区电动汽车充电负荷曲线预测的建模方法。该建模方法可为未来电动汽车充电负荷预测提供借鉴和参考,指导区域配电网建设与发展。

In view of large-scale connection of electric vehicles(EV)to distribution networks,the present work studied a method of predicting EV charging load considering the limit of charging pile.First the lithium battery charging characteristics of a single EV under the constant current-constant voltage condition was analyzed and simplified to form the single-EV charging model.Then EV users′general behavior was studied by employing Monte Carlo simulation,and the random distribution of EVs′initial charging time and charging duration was given.Finally the modeling method of apartment complex EV charging load curve prediction was proposed.This modeling method can provide reference for EV charging load predictions,and guide the construction and development of regional distribution networks.