科技人才创新能力的演进机理与提升机制仿真研究——基于国内科研机构数据

A Simulation Study on the Evolution Mechanism and Enhancement Mechanism of Innovation Capabilities of Scientific and Technological Talents:Based on Data from Domestic Research Institutions

为深入探究科技人才创新能力的演进机理和提升机制,本文基于国内科研机构的实际科研数据,运用系统动力学理论和VENSIM仿真建模工具等,构建了科技人才创新能力演进的系统动力学流图和仿真模型,并进行了模型验证和敏感性仿真分析。研究结果表明:(1)科技人才创新能力的演进呈现出兼具内在创新与外显创新的全面性和复杂性的特征,其中内在创新能力表现出稳定的增长态势,而外显创新能力在演进后期呈现更显著的增长趋势。(2)科研环境支撑能力对科技人才创新能力提升的放大效应尤为显著,凸显了优化科研环境在促进创新能力提升中的关键作用。值得注意的是,科研环境支撑能力在演进后期呈现非线性增长趋势,这得益于专业学术水平、自主研发水平、团队协助水平等多维变量的协同增强效应。(3)科研机构组织能力的提升存在一定的波动性,这揭示了科研机构在能力提升过程中面临潜在的不确定性。此外,尽管科研机构组织能力的提升对科技人才创新能力具有积极影响,但表现出一定滞后性,这可能是因为科研机构组织管理和流程优化后的效应延迟所致。本文构建的系统动力学流图和仿真模型能够有效揭示创新能力提升的内在逻辑和演进规律,旨在为科技人才创新能力的提升策略提供科学依据,同时为科研机构在科研资源的合理配置与优化利用方面提供参考。

In order to deeply investigate the evolution and promotion mechanism of scientific and technological talents’innovation capability,this article constructs the system dynamics flow diagram and simulation model of the evolution of scientific and technological talents’innovation capability based on the actual scientific research data of do⁃mestic scientific research institutes,and carries out model validation and sensitivity simulation analysis by applying the system dynamics theory and VEN⁃SIM simulation modeling tools.The results of the study show that:①The evolution of innovation capability of scientific and technological talents presents the comprehensive and complex character⁃istics of both intrinsic and extrinsic innovation,in which the intrinsic innovation capability shows stable growth,while the extrinsic innovation capability shows a more significant growth trend in the later stage.②The amplification effect of the research en⁃vironment on the enhancement of scientific and tech⁃nological talents’innovation capability is particularly significant,highlighting the key role of optimizing the research environment in promoting the enhance⁃ment of innovation capability.The capability to support the scientific research environment shows a non-linear growth in the later period,thanks to the synergistic enhancement effect of multi-dimensional variables such as the level of profes⁃sional academics,the level of independent research and development,and the level of team assistance.③The enhancement of organizational capabilities within research institutions exhibits a certain level of volatility,revealing the underlying uncertainties that these institutions confront during the process of capa⁃bility upgrading.Furthermore,although the elevation of organizational capabilities in research institutions positively impacts the innovative abilities of scientific and technological talents,it manifests a certain lag.This lag may be attributed to the delayed effects following the optimization of organizational management and processes within the research insti⁃tutions.The system dynamics flow diagram and simu⁃lation model constructed in this article can effectively reveal the internal logic and evolution law of innovation capability enhancement,aiming to provide scientific basis for the enhancement strategy of scientific and technological talents’in⁃novation capability,and at the same time,provide reference for scientific research institutions in terms of rational allocation and optimal utilization of sci⁃entific research resources.