中国粮食安全系统转型的时空特征及驱动因素

Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of food security system transformation in China

在多重外部因素冲击导致世界粮食危机日趋严重的背景下,如何构建更加高产、更富营养、更具韧性和可持续性的粮食安全系统,以推进农食系统转型,对于稳定中国经济社会发展大局至关重要。本文基于“自然—社会—经济”复合系统的三重视角,将粮食安全系统划分为资源与环境、生产与供给及分配与消费3个层面,采用“压力—状态—响应”三维框架,构建了粮食安全系统转型的评估指标体系,利用2000—2021年省域面板数据,定量揭示了中国粮食安全系统转型的时空演化特征,进而采用动态面板模型量化分析了粮食安全系统转型的各相关驱动因素。结果表明:①2000—2021年粮食安全系统转型综合指数呈现2000—2012年缓慢上升和2013—2021年快速上升两阶段变化特征,整体提高了97.90%,资源与环境和生产与供给子系统转型指数与粮食安全系统转型综合指数的演化基本一致,也呈现两阶段上升的趋势,分配与消费子系统转型指数则呈现先下降后上升的趋势。②2000—2021年省域粮食安全系统转型综合指数不断增高,高于全国平均水平的省域由2000年均衡分布于东、中、西三大区域逐渐演化为2021年集聚于粮食主产区。③粮食安全系统转型是一个持续性的过程,城镇化率、财政支农力度、人口出生率和膳食多样性指数可以显著促进粮食安全系统转型;工业化、农业生产相对收益、GDP增长率和人均可支配收入会明显阻碍粮食安全系统转型。

In the context of the increasingly severe global food crisis caused by multiple external factors,building a more productive,nutritious,resilient,and sustainable food security system to promote the transformation of the agricultural and food system had become more crucial,particularly because it is essential for stabilizing China's overall economic and social development.This paper was based on the perspective of the Nature-Society-Economy complex system.It divided the food security system into three levels:resources and environment,production and supply,and distribution and consumption.This paper constructed an index system based on the three-dimensional framework of Pressure-State-Response,employing provincial panel data from 2000 to 2021 to analyze the spatial and temporal spatial evolution characteristics of China's food security system transformation.A dynamic panel model was adopted to quantify the various driving factors related to the food security system transformation.The research results indicated the following:(1)The comprehensive index of food security system transformation from 2000 to 2021 increased by 97.90%,showing a twostage change characteristic with a moderate rise from 2000 to 2012 and a rapid growth from 2013 to 2021.The transformation index of the resources and environment and the production and supply subsystems were consistent with the evolution of the comprehensive index of food security system transformation,also exhibiting a two-stage upward trend.The transformation index of the distribution and consumption subsystem showed a downward and then an upward trend.(2)The comprehensive index of provincial food security system transformation increased continuously from 2000 to 2021.The provinces that exceeded China's average shifted from a balanced distribution across the eastern,central,and western regions in 2000 to clustering in the main grain-producing areas in 2021.(3)The food security system transformation is an ongoing endeavor.The rate of urbanization,agricultural financing policies,birth rate,and dietary diversity index can significantly promote the transformation of the food security system.The transformation of the food security system can be seriously hampered by industrialization,relative returns from agricultural production,GDP growth rate,and per capita disposable income.