南京机场2015-2018年MDRS重要天气概率预报情况统计分析

Statistical Analysis of Important Weather Probability Forecast in MDRS of Nanjing Airport from 2015 to 2018

本文对南京机场2015至2018年MDRS启动及重要天气概率预报情况进行了统计。南京机场的复杂天气以大雾和雷暴强降水为主,1月份也会出现较强的冰雪天气影响航班运行。就评估结果而言,预报命中的天气中,不准确率(预报误差超过4h)低于20%,预报效果较好,此外大雾天气预报的漏报率最高,而冰雪天气预报的准确率最高。

This paper presents a statistical analysis of the MDRS launch and the important weather probabilities forecasts at Nanjing Airport from 2015 to 2018.The complex weather at Nanjing Airport is mainly characterized by heavy fog,thunderstorms,heavy precipitation and strong ice and snow as well that affect flight operations in January.In terms of assessment results among the weather forecasts that hit the target,the inaccuracy rate(with a forecast error of more than 4 hours)is less than 20%,indicating better forecasting results.In addition,the missing reporting rate of heavy fog weather forecast is the highest while the accuracy rate of ice and snow weather forecast is the highest.