基于生态位模型的象耳豆根结线虫适生区预测研究

Potential Distribution of Meloidogyne Enterolobii Based on Niche Models

象耳豆根结线虫是一种具有强大致病力和巨大危害性的农作物病原物。为了准确预测象耳豆根结线虫在我国的潜在分布区,采用了5种生态位模型:最大熵模型(Maxent)、基于规则的遗传算法(GARP)、生态位因子分析模型(ENFA)、生物气候模型(Bioclim)以及域模型(Domain),建立了针对该病原虫的潜在生境预测模型。通过运用受试者工作曲线(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)及Kappa值,对模型的预测精度进行了严谨检验,并从中筛选出了最优模型。结果表明:最大熵模型(Maxent)不仅具备出色的预测结果,而且运行性能卓越,因此被视为预测象耳豆根结线虫在我国潜在适生区的最理想模型。通过运用最优模型Maxent进行预测,发现象耳豆根结线虫在我国的适生区主要聚集在海南、广东、广西、福建等省份,同时江西、湖南等地区也包含其适生区。这些结果提供了宝贵的线索,强调了加强对象耳豆根结线虫的监测与预警工作的重要性。通过加强监测和预警工作,能够更好地防控象耳豆根结线虫的扩散与危害,保护我国的农业生产和植物生态安全。这一研究为农业生产者和植物保护工作者提供了有价值的参考,有助于采取针对性的措施来降低象耳豆根结线虫对农作物造成的潜在威胁。

The root-knot nematode Meloidogyne enterolobii is one of the pernicious invasive nematodes.In order to accurately predict the potential distribution area of nematode root knot nematode in China,five ecological niche models were adopted:the maximum entropy model(Maxent),rule-based genetic algorithm(GARP),niche factor analysis model(ENFA),Bioclim(Bioclim) and Domain model were used to predict the potential habitat of this pathogen.In this study,five ecological niche models(Garp,Maxent,ENFA,Bioclim,and Domain) were introduced to generate ecological niche models to simulate its potential geographic distribution in China.2 statistical criteria of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC) and kappa were calculated to evaluate the performance of the models.Meanwhile,environmental variables(ecogeographical determinants) were analyzed by the jackknife method to judge their influence on M.enterolobii.The results showed that Maxent has the best prediction performance,followed by Garp,ENFA,Bioclim,and Domain,which has the poorest performance.The results from the jackknife test indicated precipitation of the wettest quarter,precipitation of April,minimum temperature of the coldest season,precipitation of June,and precipitation of the coldest quarter were the five most critical environmental variables affecting the distribution of M.enterolobii.The optimal model Maxent was used to predict that Meloidogyne enterolobii mainly gathered in Hainan,Guangdong,Guangxi,Fujian and other provinces in China,while Jiangxi,Hunan and other regions also included their potential distribution.These results provide valuable clues and emphasize the importance of strengthening the monitoring and early warning of the target otostoma root knot nematode.These results provide valuable clues and emphasize the importance of strengthening the monitoring and early warning of Meloidogyne enterolobii.Through strengthening monitoring and early warning,it is better to prevent and control the spread and harm of Meloidogyne enterolobii,and protect the agricultural production and plant ecological security.This study provides a valuable reference for agricultural producers and plant protection workers to take targeted measures to reduce the potential threat of Meloidogyne enterolobii to crops.