超高龄卧床老年压力性损伤患者创面细菌感染的影响因素分析及Nomogram预测模型构建

Analysis of infl uencing factors of bacterial infection in secondary wounds of elderly patients with pressure injury in bed and construction of Nomogram prediction model

目的探讨并分析超高龄卧床老年压力性损伤(PI)患者创面细菌感染的影响因素,并构建Nomogram预测模型。方法回顾性纳入首都医科大学附属北京友谊医院2021年6月至2023年6月收治的100例超高龄卧床老年PI患者,收集患者的一般资料、PI创面的基本情况及继发创面细菌感染的情况,通过单因素和多因素logistic回归分析探讨继发创面细菌感染的影响因素,据此建立Nomogram预测模型,并评估模型的预测效能。结果100例超高龄卧床老年PI患者中30例(30.00%)发生创面细菌感染。多因素logistic回归分析结果表明,糖尿病史、水肿、留置导尿管、大小便失禁、PI持续时间长是超高龄卧床老年PI患者继发创面细菌感染的危险因素,而持续规范治疗是其保护因素。结论糖尿病史、水肿、留置导尿管、大小便失禁、PI持续时间长是PI患者发生创面感染的危险因素。Nomogram模型的建立有助于预测超高龄卧床老年PI患者创面细菌感染的发生。

Objective To explore and analyze the influencing factors of bacterial infection in the secondary wound of the elderly patients with pressure injury(PI)in bed,and to build a Nomogram prediction model.Method 100 elderly patients with PI admitted to Beijing Friendship Hospital affi liated to Capital Medical University from June,2021 to June,2023 were retrospectively included.The general information of patients,the basic situation of PI wounds and the bacterial infection of secondary wounds were collected.The infl uencing factors of bacterial infection of secondary wounds were analyzed by univariate and multivariate Logistic regression research.Based on this,Nomogram prediction model was established and the prediction effi ciency of Nomogram model was evaluated.Result 30(30.00%)of the 100 elderly patients with PI were infected by bacteria.The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that diabetes history,edema,indwelling catheter,incontinence and PI duration were the risk factors of bacterial infection in the wound surface of the elderly patients with PI in bed,and regular treatment was the protective factor.Conclusion Patients with PI infection with diabetes history,edema,indwelling catheter,incontinence and long duration of PI are high-risk groups for wound infection.The establishment of Nomogram model is helpful to predict the occurrence of secondary wound bacterial infection in super-old patients with PI in bed.