美国国务院“中国屋”的活动及影响评析

An Analysis of the Activities and Impact of the U.S.State Department's“China House”

美国国务院“中国屋”自2022年底成立以来,从成立前面临质疑和压制,到成立后遭遇限制和竞争,经历了诸多波折和挑战。随着国务院对“现代化议程”的推进以及美国国家安全战略“投资、协同、竞争”三大支柱的逐渐形成,国务院既要应对复杂的地缘政治挑战,又要加强管控与中国的竞争以维持双边关系和全球局势的基本稳定,“中国屋”简化和协调对华政策制定的作用正在逐渐显现。“中国屋”着力推进三个不同层级的协调:机构内部的协调、跨部门的协调和与美国盟伴在国家层面的协调。在具体行动落实上,“中国屋”一方面系统性地统筹了美方对中方的制裁和施压举措,另一方面也推动适当缓和了中美关系,避免了进一步的恶化与冲突。前者包括背景调查、情报搜集、法律后果研究、行政文本支持等;后者则包括在必要时叫停制裁,促进各层级官员的交流互访、探寻双赢议题并进行合作等。“中国屋”最新的工作动向包括大力扩充其遍布全球的“地区中国官员”队伍,搜集和分析中国在相关国家和地区活动的信息,采取行动制衡中国的影响力,并引进人工智能和机器学习等前沿科技支持其工作。未来“中国屋”可能会在美对华信息搜集和分析、政策倡导与制定上起到更为关键的作用。

Since its establishment at the end of 2022,the U.S.State Departments Office of China Coordination,informally known as the“China House”,has faced numerous challenges and setbacks,from initial skepticism and opposition before its creation to constraints and competition after its founding.As the State Department advances its“modernization agenda”and as the three pillars of the U.S.national security strategyinvest,align,and compete-gradually take shape,the U.S.State Department is compelled to navigate complex geopolitical challenges while managing competition with China to maintain stability in the bilateral relations and the global landscape.Against this backdrop,the role of the“China House”in streamlining and coordinating U.S.policy toward China has become increasingly apparent.The“China House”focuses on promoting coordination at three distinct levels:intra-agency coordination within the State Department,cross-departmental coordination within the U.S.government,and inter-governmental coordination with U.S.allies.In terms of specific actions,the“China House”systematically coordinates U.S.sanctions and pressure measures against China,while also working to ease tensions and prevent further deterioration and conflict in China-U.S.relations.The former includes background checks,intelligence gathering,legal impact assessments,and administrative support,while the latter involves putting sanctions on hold when necessary,facilitating exchanges and visits between officials at various levels,and exploring areas of mutual interest for cooperation.The latest initiatives of the“China House”include significantly expanding its global network of“regional China officials”,gathering and analyzing intelligence on Chinas activities in relevant countries and regions,taking actions to counterbalance Chinas influence,and incorporating cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning to support its work.Looking ahead,the“China House”is likely to play an even more critical role in China-related intelligence gathering and policy analysis,as well as the direction and formulation of U.S.foreign policy toward China.