“一带一路”沿线粮食贸易的结构特征与影响因素

Structural characteristics and influential factors of grain trade along the Belt and Road

基于2022年“一带一路”沿线68个国家/地区谷物进出口数据,构建粮食贸易网络,通过社会网络分析和指数随机图模型,探讨沿线粮食贸易的产品结构、网络结构及其影响因素。结果表明:①“一带一路”沿线粮食贸易以小麦、大米、玉米为主,土耳其、中国内地、埃及是粮食进口前三名,土耳其和埃及依赖小麦进口而中国内地依赖玉米进口;印度、乌克兰、俄罗斯位列粮食出口前三,其出口优势产品为大米、玉米、小麦,中国内地的大米出口也有一定优势;②粮食整体贸易网络核心突出、子群分异,形成中乌亚欧组团、南亚波罗的海组团、中欧巴尔干组团、中亚组团、高加索北非组团,粮食分类贸易网络中大米、玉米、小麦贸易联系稠密、集聚效应明显;荞麦贸易网络集聚但效率较低;大麦、燕麦、高粱、黑麦贸易网络稀疏,呈现属地特征;③“一带一路”粮食贸易受到进出口国家/地区耕地资源、人口规模、双边的地理距离、贸易协定、粮食结构影响,贸易中的互惠性、择优依附性和三方传递性也是重要的驱动力。

Drawing on the grain import and export data of 68 countries/regions along the Belt and Road in 2022,a grain trade network was constructed,and then the product structure,network structure and the underlying influential factors were explored through social network analysis and exponential random graph models.The results showed that:①The grain trade along the Belt and Road was dominated by wheat,rice,and corn.The top-3 grain importers were Turkey,China' mainland,and Egypt.Egypt and Turkey depended on wheat import while China' mainland relied on corn import.The top-3 grain exporters were India,Ukraine,and Russia with advantages in rice,corn,wheat export.China' Mainland also had somewhat advantage in rice export.②The cores of the overall grain trade network were prominent and the communities were differentiated,forming China-Ukraine Eurasia community,South Asia and the Baltic community,Central Europe and the Balkans community,Central Asia community,and Caucasia and North Africa community.In the categorized grain trade networks,the trade networks of rice,maize and wheat showed dense flows and obvious clusters,the buckwheat trade network was clustering with low efficiency,whereas the trade networks of barley,oats,sorghum and rye were sparse,presenting strong territorial characteristics.③The grain trade along the Belt and Road was affected by local cultivated land resources,population,bilateral geographic distance,trade agreements,and grain trade structures.The trade mutuality,preferential attachment,and transitivity were also important driving forces.