玛纳斯河流域生态系统服务及其权衡关系的驱动因素

The driving factors of ecosystem services and their tradeoffs in the Manas River basin of Xinjiang,China

为缓解玛纳斯河流域绿洲农业经济发展与生态保护之间的矛盾,本研究以玛纳斯河流域为研究对象,利用InVEST模型量化了碳储量(CS)、产水量(WY)和土壤保持(SR)服务的时空分布特征,并在此基础上分析了生态系统服务(ESs)变化之间的权衡关系,通过MGWR(多尺度地理加权回归)模型揭示了生态系统变化及其权衡与驱动因素之间的空间关系。结果表明:2000—2015年,耕地和建设用地面积分别增加50.81%和91.95%,未利用地和草地面积分别减少16.88%和6.71%;CS和WY分别增加4.76%和37.12%,而SR则减少9.94%;CS、SR与WY之间存在显著的权衡关系,且权衡强度空间异质性明显,南部山区是权衡强度的高值区域;ESs变化及其权衡关系与影响因子之间关系的性质和强度在空间分布上具有异质性,土地利用综合动态度、植被覆盖度和土壤有机碳含量是驱动ESs变化及其权衡关系的主导因子。研究表明,在玛纳斯河流域山区种植草地、绿洲区建立水资源保护区同时加大绿洲农业科技的投入,是促进生态系统服务可持续供给和缓解绿洲农业发展与生态保护之间矛盾的有效途径。

In order to alleviate the contradiction between agricultural economic development and ecological protection in the oasis of Manas River basin,the thesis quantified the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of carbon stock(CS),water yield(WY),and soil retention(SR)services by using the InVEST model,based on which we analyzed the tradeoffs between the changes of ecosystem services(ESs).Multi-scale geographically weighted regression(MGWR)model was used to analyze the spatial relationships between ecosystem changes and their trade-offs and drivers were revealed.The results were as follows:from 2000 to 2015,cropland and built-up land area increased by 50.81%and 91.95%,and unused land and grassland decreased by 16.88%and 6.71%.CS and WY increased by 4.76%and 37.12%,while SR decreased by 9.94%.The trade-off relationship between CS,SR,and WY was heterogeneous in spatial distribution,and ESs tradeoffs high-value regions were mountainous area in the south.The intensity and properties of the correlation between the changes and tradeoffs of ESs and influencing factors were heterogeneous in spatial distribution,and dynamic degree of comprehensive land use changes,vegetation coverage changes,and soil organic carbon are the main driving factors of the changes and tradeoffs of ecosystem services.The study suggests that planting grassland in the mountainous areas of the Manas River basin and establishing water resource protection zones in the oasis areas while increasing the investment in oasis agricultural science and technology are effective ways to promote the sustainable supply of ecosystem services and alleviate the contradiction between oasis agricultural development and ecological protection.