河北省生鲜农产品冷链物流需求分析及预测——基于多元回归模型分析

Analysis and Prediction of the Demand for Cold Chain Logisticso f Fresh Agricultural Products in Hebei Province——Analysis Based on Multiple Regression Model

在“双碳”目标背景下,生鲜农产品冷链物流的发展也在步步深入。文章以河北省为研究对象,从产品供给、物流规模、社会经济三个层面,选取了10个基本指标,通过SPSS软件来构建河北省生鲜农产品冷链物流需求预测多元回归模型,分析各个指标对河北省冷链物流需求量的影响作用,并通过曲线回归,预测其各指标随时间的变化规律,最后计算未来五年河北省生鲜农产品冷链物流需求量,以此为河北省冷链物流的发展提供参考及发展建议。

Against the backdrop of“double carbon”goals,the development of cold chain logistics for fresh agricultural products is advancing steadily.Taking Hebei Province as the research object,this study selects ten basic indicators from the three levels of product supply,logistics scale,and social economy.Utilizing the SPSS software,a multiple regression model is constructed to forecast the demand for cold chain logistics of fresh agricultural products in Hebei Province.The study analyzes the impact of each indicator on the demand for cold chain logistics in Hebei Province and predicts the changing trends of these indicators over time through curve regression.Finally,the future demand for cold chain logistics of fresh agricultural products in Hebei Province over the next five years is calculated,providing reference and development suggestions for the development of cold chain logistics in Hebei Province.