吉林省公共建筑运行碳排放达峰预测研究

Influencing Factors and Peak Prediction of Operating Carbon Emission in Public Buildings of Jijin Province

基于吉林省2000-2020年公共建筑碳排放历史数据,运用Kaya-LMDI模型进行初步分析,得出能耗强度、经济活动强度、产业结构、城镇化率、人口规模是影响吉林省公共建筑碳排放的主要因素。以此为基础构建STIRPAT模型,预测了基准情景、高碳情景、低碳情景、超低碳情景下吉林省公共建筑2021-2045年碳排放量变化趋势、碳达峰时间及峰值水平。结果表明:低碳情景下,通过进一步降低化石燃料比例以优化能源结构,推动第三产业高质量发展以降低能耗强度,实行公共建筑碳交易政策,可在兼顾经济发展与节能减排的前提下于2039年实现碳达峰,峰值为36.57 Mt,是吉林省公共建筑的最优碳排放情景。可为吉林省及其他严寒地区省份提供公共建筑碳减排路径参考,为实现“3060双碳目标”提供助力。

Main factors affecting the operating carbon emissions of public buildings of Jilin Province includes energy consumption intensity,economic activity intensity,industrial structure,urbanization rate,and population size through the Kaya-LMDI model involved the historical data from 2000 to 2020.To predict the carbon emission trend,the peak time and the peak level between 2021-2045 under the baseline scenario,the high-carbon emission scenario,the low-carbon emission scenario and the ultra-low-carbon emission scenario respectively,the STIRPAT model is built which bases on the Kaya-LMDI model.The predicting result indicates that under the low-carbon scenario,the carbon peak can be achieved in 2039 with a peak of 36.57 Mt by reducing the proportion of fossil fuels further to optimize energy structure,promoting high-quality development of the tertiary industry and implementing carbon trading policies for public buildings to reduce energy consumption intensity,which takes account of the economic growth,the energy conservation and the emission reduction.That is the optimal carbon emission scenario for public buildings of Jilin Province.This article can also provide a reference path about how to achieve the carbon reduction in public buildings for Jilin and other provinces in severe cold regions and assistance to achieve the“3060”Carbon Neutrality and Emission Peak target.