嘉兴市百日咳流行病学特征及发病趋势分析(2011—2023年)

Epidemiological characteristics and short-term incidence trend analysis of pertussis in Jiaxing City(2011-2023)

目的了解2011—2023年嘉兴市百日咳流行病特征,构建自回归积分滑动平均(autogressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)模型预测短期发病趋势。方法从中国疾病预防控制信息系统中收集2011—2023年嘉兴市的百日咳监测数据,采用描述性流行病学方法分析百日咳流行特征,构建ARIMA模型预测2024年嘉兴市百日咳发病趋势。结果2011—2023年嘉兴市共报告百日咳病例429例,年均报告发病率0.75/10万,呈上升趋势(χ^(2)_(趋势)=236.35,P<0.001)。疾病呈全年发病趋势,3月起在高位波动。不同地区报告发病率存在差异,海宁市年均报告发病率0.95/10万,其次为嘉善县和桐乡市,分别为0.80/10万、0.81/10万。嘉兴市百日咳报告病例呈现≤1周岁(44.29%,190/429)和5~9周岁(34.50%,148/429)年龄段双高峰现象。采用ARIMA(2,1,2)(0,1,1)12为最优预测模型,预计2024年嘉兴市百日咳发病趋势将在高位波动。结论嘉兴市百日咳报告发病率处于较低水平,但总体呈上升趋势。不同地区存在报告发病率差异,应关注≤1周岁小年龄段、5~9周岁儿童和成人百日咳疫情。预测短期内百日咳发病率仍处于高位波动。

Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of pertussis in Jiaxing from 2011 to 2023 and to construct an autogressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model to predict the short-term incidence trend.Methods Pertussis surveillance data in Jiaxing from 2011 to 2023 were collected from the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System.Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of pertussis in Jiaxing.An ARIMA model was constructed to forecast the pertussis incidence trend in Jiaxing City for 2024.Results From 2011 to 2023,a total of 429 pertussis cases were reported in Jiaxing,with an average annual incidence rate of 0.75 per 100000,showing an increasing trend(χ^(2)_(trend)=236.35,P<0.001).Pertussis cases occurred throughout the year with peak fluctuations starting from March.There were regional differences in reported incidence rates,with Haiyan City having the highest average annual incidence rate of 0.95 per 100000,followed by Jiashan County and Tongxiang City at 0.80 per 100000 and 0.81 per 100000,respectively.Pertussis cases in Jiaxing City showed bimodal peaks among infants≤1 year old(44.29%,190/429)and children aged 5-9 years(34.50%,148/429).The ARIMA(2,1,2)(0,1,1)2 model was identified as the optimal forecasting model,predicting that the pertussis incidence trend in Jiaxing City would remain at a high level in 2024.Conclusions The reported incidence rate of pertussis in Jiaxing is relatively low but is showing an overall increasing trend.There are differences in reported incidence rates in different regions.It needs to pay attention to the pertussis epidemic among infants≤1 year old,children aged 5-9 years,and adults.The forecast indicates that the incidence rate of pertussis will remain at a high level in the short term.