大型水利枢纽工程夏季降水关键区季内演变规律建模分析

Modeling and Analysis of Intra-seasonal Evolution Patterns of Summer Precipitation in Key Areas of Large-scale Water Conservancy Hub Projects

为了监测并预测区域水文情况,提前预防自然灾害,建模分析大型水利枢纽工程夏季降水关键区季内演变规律。从降雨极值GP模型和降雨时间序列演变模型2个角度分析夏季降水关键区季内演变规律。引入降雨极值变化指标分析降雨超定量变化特征,构建月降雨量序列模型,获得标度指数,描述降雨时间序列长期变化行为,分析降雨序列内在规律。结果表明,关键区气象站1~3受到季风及地理条件影响,近10年夏季降雨规律呈现先升高后降低的变化趋势,气象站4~12未受地理环境影响,保持先降低后升高的统一降雨趋势,研究区域的降雨规律具有复杂性。

In order to monitor and predict regional hydrological conditions and prevent natural disasters in advance,modeling and analyzing the intra-seasonal evolution law in key areas of summer precipitation of large-scale water conservancy hub projects.The intra-seasonal evolution law in the key area of summer precipitation is analyzed from the perspective of the extreme rainfall GP model and the rainfall time series evolution model.The extreme value change index of rainfall is introduced to analyze the characteristics of rainfall over quantitative change,the monthly rainfall series model is constructed,the scale index is obtained,the long-term change behavior of rainfall time series is described,and the internal law of rainfall series is analyzed.The results show that the key area meteorological stations 1~3 are affected by the monsoon and geographical conditions,and the summer rainfall in recent ten years shows a trend of increasing first and then decreasing.The meteorological stations 4~12 are not affected by the geographical environment,and maintain the unified rainfall trend of decreasing first and then increasing.The rainfall rules in the study area are complex.