中国“双循环”新格局发展水平的时空分异及动态演进

Spatiotemporal Differentiation and Dynamic Evolution of China’s“Dual Circulation”New Pattern Development Level

文章基于2003—2020年中国30个省份的数据,从内循环、外循环、内外一体化三个维度构建指标体系测度我国“双循环”新格局发展水平,利用Dagum基尼系数分解方法、Kernel密度估计方法、Markov链转移矩阵和Moran’s I揭示“双循环”新格局发展水平的区域差异、动态演进趋势以及空间相关性。结果表明:中国“双循环”新格局发展水平和三个子系统水平整体呈上升态势;“双循环”新格局发展水平区域差异明显,且主要来源于区域间差异,东部和西部地区之间的差异最为突出“;双循环”新格局发展水平的绝对差异在波动中有所减小,且内外一体化水平极化现象较明显“;双循环”新格局发展水平具有“俱乐部趋同”的特征以及一定程度的“马太效应”,且具有鲜明的空间集聚特征。

Based on the data of 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2020,this paper constructs an indicator system to mea⁃sure the development level of China’s new pattern of“dual circulation”from the three dimensions of internal circulation,exter⁃nal circulation and internal and external integration,and then uses Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method,Kernel density estimation method,Markov chain transition matrix and Moran’s I to reveal the regional difference,dynamic evolution trend and spatial correlation of the new pattern development level of“dual circulation”.The results are shown as follows:The development level of China’s new pattern of“dual circulation”and the level of the three subsystems are rising as a whole.There are obvious regional differences in the development level of the new pattern of“dual circulation”,which mainly come from the differences among regions,and the difference between the east and the west is the most prominent.The absolute difference of the develop⁃ment level of the new pattern of“dual circulation”is reduced in the fluctuation,and the polarization phenomenon of internal and external integration level is obvious.The development level of the new pattern of“dual circulation”has the characteristics of“club convergence”and a certain degree of Matthew Effect,and has distinct spatial agglomeration characteristics.