我国生物质资源能源开发利用潜力评估

Assessment of biomass resources for energy use potential in China

生物质作为可再生的碳源,其有效开发利用对我国碳达峰与碳中和目标的实现至关重要。我国生物质资源丰富多样,然而生物质能资源的定量评估研究较少,存在较大不确定性。我国生物质资源到底有多大,未来能源利用开发潜力有多少,一直是人们关注的焦点。本文构建了基于不同类别的生物质资源量综合核算模型,基于2001—2019年数据,分析了我国生物质资源量时空分布特征,并采用ARIMA模型模拟预测了我国未来生物质资源量及能源开发利用潜力。结果表明,我国生物质资源量和能源开发利用潜力,以年均约3%的增长率,从2001年的17.64和10.91 EJ,分别增加至2019年的30.59和18.08 EJ。我国生物质资源主要来自农林业废弃物和粪便(78.5%),且大西南、黄河中游、长江中游综合经济区的生物质资源量占比较高(50.3%)。具体到各省份,河南、山东、广西、四川省生物质资源尤为丰富,占总生物质资源量的25.8%。未来伴随我国人口、粮食产量、畜牧业发展和造林面积的增加以及城镇化的推进,我国生物质资源量和能源开发利用潜力将不断增加,到2030年我国生物质资源量与能源开发利用潜力将增至38.17与22.46 EJ,到2060年将增至66.19与38.85 EJ,转化为生物质清洁能源产品的开发潜力巨大。本研究成果可推动我国生物质能源可持续发展,为我国清洁低碳能源资源普查和信息平台建立提供数据支撑。

Biomass energy is an important renewable energy source,the effective exploitation of which is crucial to achieving China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets.Biomass resources are abundant and diverse in China.However,few studies have conducted the quantitative and comprehensive assessment of biomass resources,leading to the estimates with large uncertainty.How much biomass resources are there in China?What is the potential for biomass energy use?All of these are the focuses of attention.In this study,we constructed a comprehensive biomass energy resource accounting framework.Based on the framework,we analyzed the spatial and temporal variations of biomass resources in China,and used ARIMA model to simulate and predict the future biomass resources and ener⁃gy exploitation potential.The results showed that the amount of biomass resources and energy utilization potential in China increased from 17.64 and 10.91 EJ in 2001 to 30.59 and 18.08 EJ in 2019,with an average annual growth rate of 3%,respectively.China’s biomass resources mainly originated from agricultural and forest wastes,and manure,accounting for 78.5%of total biomass resources.Biomass resources in the Great Southwest,Middle Yellow River and Middle Yangtze River integrated economic zones were abundant(50.3%).At the province level,Henan,Shandong,Guangxi and Sichuan provinces were rich in biomass resources,accounting for 25.8%of total biomass resources.Along with the increases in population,grain production,livestock development,afforestation area,and urbanization,as well as clean energy construction,the biomass resources and energy development in China would grow correspondingly in the future.The amount of biomass resources and energy exploration potential would increase to 38.17 and 22.46 EJ by 2030,and 66.19 and 38.85 EJ by 2060,respectively.There would be enormous develop⁃ment potential for transforming clean biomass energy products.Our results will be conducive to promoting biomass energy sustainable development,providing data support for the establishment of a clean and lowcarbon energy resources census and information platform in China.